Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

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Archive for 10. Juni 2009

Is Eastern Europe on the Brink of an Asia-Style Crisis?

Posted by hkarner - 10. Juni 2009

Aus dem heutigen RGE Monitor:

The collapse of the Thai baht in July 1997 helped spark the Asian financial crisis. Could events in Latvia spawn a similar contagion? Eyes are focused on this small Baltic economy, amid growing talk of a devaluation, due to the potential for spillover effects into its fellow Baltics, Sweden and the broader Eastern European region.

Strong trade and financial linkages, not to mention similar macroeconomic vulnerabilities, mean a Latvian crisis would almost surely have knock-on effects on neighboring Estonia and Lithuania, as detailed in this RGE EconoMonitor post in early May. A Latvian crisis would also have negative spillover effects into Sweden via Swedish banks’ heavy exposure to the Baltic trio. The wildcard is how a Latvian crisis would affect the greater Central and Eastern European (CEE) region. Direct trade and financial linkages between Latvia and CEE economies, outside of the Baltics, are limited. Nevertheless, many of these countries – particularly Bulgaria and Romania – share similar macroeconomic vulnerabilities with Latvia, meaning a crisis there could ‘wake up’ investors to the potential for crises in the rest of the region. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Economy Shows Cracks in European Union

Posted by hkarner - 10. Juni 2009

Date: 09-06-2009
 Source: The New York Times
Subject: Economy Shows Cracks in European Union 

 

BERLIN — The European Union is an extraordinary experiment in shared sovereignty, creating a zone of peace that now stretches from Britain to the Balkans. The union of 27 countries is the world’s most formidable economic bloc, incorporating 491 million people in an integrated market that produces nearly a third more than the United States.

But the global economic crisis has made it clear that Europe remains less than the sum of its parts. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Betrug oder Selbstbetrug?

Posted by hkarner - 10. Juni 2009

Eine detailierte Betrachtung des US-Arbeitsmarktes verdeutlicht wie schlecht es um Jobs und damit um Einkommen bestellt ist! Der US-Aktienmarkt spielt eine Erholung die auf reines Wunschdenken basiert, ohne eine nachhaltige Trendwende am Arbeitsmarkt, gibt es auch keine nachhaltige Erholung der Wirtschaft! Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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History lesson for economists in thrall to Keynes

Posted by hkarner - 10. Juni 2009

aus der Financial Times:

 
By Niall Ferguson

On Wednesday last week, yields on 10-year US Treasuries — generally seen as the benchmark for long-term interest rates — rose above 3.73 per cent. Once upon a time that would have been considered rather low. But the financial crisis has changed all that: at the end of last year, the yield on the 10-year fell to 2.06 per cent. In other words, long-term rates have risen by 167 basis points in the space of five months. In relative terms, that represents an 81 per cent jump.

Most commentators were unnerved by this development, coinciding as it did with warnings about the fiscal health of the US. For me, however, it was good news. For it settled a rather public argument between me and the Princeton economist Paul Krugman. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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