Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘Quantitative Easing’

Preparing for a Perfect Storm

Posted by hkarner - 2. Februar 2013

Roubini

Author: Nouriel Roubini · January 31st, 2013 · , Project Syndicate

The global economy this year will exhibit some similarities with the conditions that prevailed in 2012. No surprise there: We face another year in which global growth will average about 3 percent, but with a multispeed recovery—a subpar, below-trend annual rate of 1 percent in the advanced economies, and close-to-trend rates of 5 percent in emerging markets. But there will be some important differences as well.

Painful deleveraging—less spending and more saving to reduce debt and leverage—remains ongoing in most advanced economies, which implies slow economic growth. But fiscal austerity will envelop most advanced economies this year, rather than just the Eurozone periphery and the United Kingdom. Indeed, austerity is spreading to the core of the Eurozone, the United States, and other advanced economies (with the exception of Japan). Given synchronized fiscal retrenchment in most advanced economies, another year of mediocre growth could give way to outright contraction in some countries. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Is Capitalism Doomed?

Posted by hkarner - 18. August 2011

Date: 17-08-2011
 Source: Project Syndicate: Nouriel Roubini

The massive volatility and sharp equity-price correction now hitting global financial markets signal that most advanced economies are on the brink of a double-dip recession.

A financial and economic crisis caused by too much private-sector debt and leverage led to a massive re-leveraging of the public sector in order to prevent Great Depression 2.0. But the subsequent recovery has been anemic and sub-par in most advanced economies given painful deleveraging.

Now a combination of high oil and commodity prices, turmoil in the Middle East, Japan’s earthquake and tsunami, eurozone debt crises, and America’s fiscal problems (and now its rating downgrade) have led to a massive increase in risk aversion. Economically, the United States, the eurozone, the United Kingdom, and Japan are all idling. Even fast-growing emerging markets (China, emerging Asia, and Latin America), and export-oriented economies that rely on these markets (Germany and resource-rich Australia), are experiencing sharp slowdowns. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Flying blind

Posted by hkarner - 5. August 2011

Date: 03-08-2011

Source: The Economist

ON DECEMBER 16th, 2008, President-Elect Barack Obama met in Chicago with key members of his economic team to discuss their response to the deteriorating economic situation. Just two weeks earlier, the Bureau of Labour Statistics reported that 533,000 jobs had been lost in November, after a decline of 302,000 in October. According to the latest output figures, the economy had contracted by 0.5% in the third quarter, and much worse was expected of the fourth. The New Yorker’s Ryan Lizza describes the debate: The most important question facing Obama that day was how large the stimulus should be…A hundred-billion-dollar stimulus had seemed prudent earlier in the year. Congress now appeared receptive to something on the order of five hundred billion…[CEA Chair Christina] Romer’s analysis, deeply informed by her work on the Depression, suggested that the package should probably be more than $1.2 trillion. The memo to Obama, however, detailed only two packages: a five-hundred-and-fifty-billion-dollar stimulus and an eight-hundred-and-ninety-billion-dollar stimulus. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Charles Plosser and the 50% Contraction in the Fed’s Balance Sheet

Posted by hkarner - 20. April 2011

Gestern, 19. April 2011, 19:39:00 | John Mauldin

Dr. John Hussman is no stranger to Outside the Box readers. And his recent posting has my mind reeling. In essence he is saying that if the Fed wants to stop the QE and allow rates to rise, they must either reverse the QE or bring on inflation. And he does it with numbers and his usual strong reasoning. I really did read this 3-4 times, thinking through the implications.

“There are a few possible outcomes as we move forward. One is that the economy weakens, and the Fed decides to leave interest rates unchanged, or even to initiate an additional round of quantitative easing. In this event, it’s quite possible that we still would not observe much inflation, provided that interest rates are held down far enough. Unfortunately, the larger the monetary base, the lower the interest rate required for a non-inflationary outcome. T-bills are already at less than 4 basis points. In the event of even another $200 billion in quantitative easing, the liquidity preference curve suggests that Treasury bill yields would have to be held at literally a single basis point in order to avoid inflationary pressures.”

You can read his latest work at www.hussman.net .

Note on Finland. The True Finns took over 19% of the vote, with the largest party getting slightly more than 20% and the number two a little less. Basically, 15% of Finnish voters used the True Finns to register their displeasure at the bailout at the cost of Finnish taxpayers. Germany is starting to talk about “restructuring”Greek debt, another word for default. The German banks must be getting in better shape if the talk is out in the open among German leaders – much as I said a year ago. Stay tuned. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Japan to ease monetary policy further: Roubini

Posted by hkarner - 28. März 2011

Sat, Mar 19 2011

BEIJING (Reuters) – Nouriel Roubini, best known for predicting the U.S. housing meltdown, said he expects Japan’s central bank to ease monetary policy further by buying more government debt in the wake of the earthquake.

Roubini, one of Wall Street’s most closely followed economists, said the Bank of Japan (BoJ) would have to set aside more money to buy bonds from the government to help pay for Japan’s reconstruction works.

The BoJ’s future purchases of government bonds, also known as quantitative easing (QE), are likely to be larger than the amount that was unveiled this week, Roubini said on the sidelines of a conference in Beijing.

“They have already done QE I, QE II, now there will be a third round, and the third round might be larger than the smaller amount of quantitative easing that they have done so far,” he told Reuters. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The End of QE2?

Posted by hkarner - 21. März 2011

 

The End of QE2?

What Happens When We Come to the End of QE2?

By John Mauldin

 

What happens when the Fed is finished with QE2? I have been letting that filter into my thinking lately as I look at the economic landscape and the data we have seen the past few  weeks. Correlation is not causation, as I often say, but all we can do is look back at what  happened last time and speculate about the future. A very dangerous occupation, but your fearless analyst will plunge on ahead into the jungle of a very hazy future. You come with me at your own risk!

 

Full article  mwo031811

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Die Welt lacht über Fed-Chef Ben Bernanke

Posted by hkarner - 7. Dezember 2010

Handelsblatt.com, 7/12

Ein Internet-Video macht sich über die allzu laxe Geldpolitik der US-Notenbank lustig. Es zeigt, warum die Fed von allen Seiten Prügel bezieht. Vor allem Ben Bernanke selber kommt in dem Clip von Omid Malekan äußerst schlecht weg.

Ben Bernanke: In einem Youtube-Video wird die Geldpolitik der US-Notenbank Fed aufs Korn genommen. Quelle: Reuters

Ben Bernanke: In einem Youtube-Video wird die Geldpolitik der US-Notenbank Fed aufs Korn genommen. Quelle: Reuters

FRANKFURT. Sollte sich US-Notenbankchef Ben Bernanke irgendwelchen Illusionen über seine Beliebtheit im Volk hingegeben haben, so haben zwei Teddybären ihm diese Illusion genommen. Ein Sieben-Minuten-Film, in dem ein Teddybär einem anderen mit computergenerierter Stimme verzweifelt die unverständliche Geldpolitik der US–Notenbank erklären will („Quantitative Easing Explained“), gehört seit einigen Wochen zu den beliebtesten Videos auf der Internetplattform Youtube. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Age of Deleveraging

Posted by hkarner - 16. November 2010

John Mauldin, 16/11  
Before we get into this week’s outstanding Outside the Box, I want to comment on QE2 and the efforts by some Republican economists to urge legislators to get involved to stop it (see the front page of Monday’s Wall Street Journal). That pushes my comfort zone a little too much.

First, I am not a fan of QE2. Never have been. If it had been my call, I would have punted and told the guys in the Capital that the ball was in their court to get their fiscal house in order, because that is the main source of the problem. But Bernanke and the Fed felt they had to “do something,” to demonstrate they got the seriousness of the situation. If the only policy tool you have left is the hammer of printing money, then the world looks like a nail.

Second, I doubt it works. It might be interesting to see what would happen (theoretically) if they decided to print $3-4 trillion. Now that would have a (probably very negative) impact. But it would show up on the radar screen. I think $600 billion just gets soaked up in bank balance sheets, sloughed off to world emerging markets (that don’t want it) and other hot spots, with some drifting into the stock market. But does it increase real final demand, which is what the Keynesians are so seemingly desperate for? I doubt it. And I just don’t see the transmission mechanism for QE2 to produce new employment of any statistical significance. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Roubini: The Fed Needs to Fight Deflation and a Double Dip Recession

Posted by hkarner - 14. November 2010

Nov 11, 2010 9:32PM

by Ash Bennington

With all the second guessing of QE2 — and even chatter about a return to a gold standard—Nouriel Roubini is very clear about the primary challenge to the U.S. economy: “The risk is deflation—not inflation.”

Roubini_nouriel_smiling_200.jpg

Roubini, of course, has been on record supporting quantitative easing for some time. But, in my interview with him, he made clear that he’s still not sanguine about growth prospects—even after the injection of a fresh $600 billion.

What value does he see in QE2 (Federal Reserve easing quantitative easing)? Principally, he believes it’s a necessary evil for allowing the U.S. economy to steer clear of catastrophe.

“It certainly reduces the tail risk of a double dip [recession],” he said.”And it reduces the risk of outright deflation or the expectation of deflation.”

In our discussion, Roubini made his case against the critics of quantitative easing very clear—and explained the dire consequences of inaction.

“The biggest problem we’re facing today is growth that is too low. And inflation that is too low. And if we don’t do anything to prevent growth that is too low…then we’re going to end up in deflation,” Roubini said And how bad might that get? According to Roubini, if the deflation scenario is allowed to unfold due to an absence of central bank intervention, “we end up like Japan: In a trap of near depression that can last a decade—if not longer.” Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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US-Geldpolitik: Ein Blasebalg namens Fed

Posted by hkarner - 4. November 2010

Handelsblatt, 4/11

Die allmächtige Wall Street hat von der US-Notenbank bekommen, was sie gefordert hat – mal wieder. Die Fed sorgt für weitere 600 Mrd. Dollar an frischer Liquidität. Der jüngste Schritt ist nur die Fortsetzung einer Serie gravierender Fehlentwicklungen in den USA. Die Saat für die nächste Spekulationsblase ist gelegt.

Matthias Eberle Quelle: Pablo Castagnola

Matthias Eberle Quelle: Pablo Castagnola

Wir Journalisten sind längst müde geworden, die Nullen vor dem Komma zu zählen. Mit einer historisch einmaligen Geldschwemme machen sich die USA auf den Weg Richtung Absurdistan, und die Welt schaut dabei staunend, aber kaum mehr sorgenvoll zu. Die Finanzmärkte applaudieren. Investoren freuen sich auf noch mehr billiges Geld. Die Kritiker des sogenannten “Quantitative Easing” sind verstummt, kaum dass die Schmerzen der jüngsten Boom & Crash-Ära einigermaßen verdaut sind. Weshalb eigentlich? Auf dem Höhepunkt der Finanzkrise 2008 galt es unter Experten nur als ausnahmsweise erlaubt, einen Billionenbetrag in die Märkte zu pumpen, um den weltweiten Bankenkollaps zu verhindern. Wer will diese Berechtigung jetzt noch unterschreiben, eineinhalb Jahre nach dem offiziellen Ende der Rezession? Jene 600 Mrd. Dollar, die die US-Notenbank Fed jetzt wieder in Umlauf bringt, entsprechen ziemlich genau dem Bruttoinlandsprodukt Indonesiens, immerhin der größten Volkswirtschaft in Südostasien. Das lässt den Schluss zu: Entweder bringt Indonesien von Januar bis Dezember nicht viel auf die Beine, oder der Dollar dürfte bei Lichte betrachtet nicht mehr viel wert sein.

Der jüngste Schritt der Fed ist nur die Fortsetzung einer Serie gravierender Fehlentwicklungen in den USA. Anstatt sich der überbordenden Schuldenproblematik zu stellen, unangenehme Wahrheiten zu akzeptieren und entsprechend schmerzhafte Veränderungen im Land einzuleiten, bleibt Stimulus auf Pump die einzige Strategie der US-Oberen. Dabei ist die Wahrscheinlichkeit sehr hoch, dass die Milliarden aus dem Helikopter des Ben Bernanke vor allem die nächste Spekulationsblase finanzieren, nicht aber den am Boden liegenden Arbeitsmarkt in der größten Volkswirtschaft der Welt. Die Volkswirte der US-Beratungsfirma Macroeconomic Advisors gehen davon aus, dass sich die Arbeitslosenrate in den USA selbst bei Anleihe-Aufkäufen im Volumen von 1,5 Billionen Dollar nur um magere 0,3 Prozent senken ließe. Mit anderen Worten: Dem Heer von mehr als 30 Millionen Jobsuchenden ist mit dicken Geldspritzen nicht sonderlich geholfen (solange sie nicht in einer 1,5 Billionen Dollar schweren Bildungsoffensive münden). Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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