Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘Poverty’

Experte: “Die globale Ungleichheit geht zurück”

Posted by hkarner - 22. September 2014

Milanovic BrankoBranko Milanović(60) ist US-Ökonom an der City University of New York und forscht auf dem Gebiet der Einkommensverteilung. Zuvor war der gebürtige Serbe leitender Ökonom in der Weltbank.

Branko Milanović ist der Doyen der Ungleichheitsforschung. Der »Presse am Sonntag« verrät er, warum er lieber reich in einem armen Land wäre als umgekehrt. Und warum er selbst nicht sagt, wie viel Geld er hat.

20.09.2014 | 18:47 |   (Die Presse)

Auf meine erste Frage bekäme ich in Österreich keine Antwort. Ich frage dennoch, weil Sie als Amerikaner vielleicht einen entspannteren Umgang mit dem Thema haben: Herr Milanović, wie viel verdienen Sie?

Branko Milanović: Das würde Ihnen in den USA auch niemand sagen. Aber wenn wir ernsthaft über Einkommensungleichheit und Armut sprechen wollen, sollten wir wissen, wo wir stehen.

Also, wie viel verdienen Sie?

Ich würde Ihnen lieber sagen, wo ich in der Einkommenspyramide stehe.

Und zwar?

Mein Haushalt liegt im zweiten oder dritten Prozent der reichsten US-Haushalte. Das heißt, global bin ich im obersten Prozent der Top-Verdiener. Dasselbe gilt für die reichsten zwölf Prozent aller Amerikaner und die reichsten acht Prozent der Europäer.

Sie forschen über Einkommensverteilung, seit Sie junger Wissenschaftler im sozialistischen Ex-Jugoslawien waren. Wie war das damals möglich? Ich dachte, Ungleichheit war damals von der Partei verboten. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Poverty Matters for Capitalists

Posted by hkarner - 11. Juli 2014

By Charles GaveCharles Gave

GaveKal Dragonomics
July 8, 2014

Inflation is a much misunderstood phenomenon. Most people assume that a CPI rate of 10% means that most prices are rising by a similar amount. In reality, some prices may be falling even while others soar. This matters because price variations affect socio-economic groups in very different ways. The rich tend not to be impacted unduly by price hikes for “necessities” such as food, rent and fuel, while the impact on the poor is to slash that portion of their income left over for discretionary spending.

A sharp rise in the price of staples imposes an effective tax on low earners, resulting in recession conditions for firms that sell to them. The broad picture in the US may be of low interest rates and rising real average incomes, but the poor have seen their real incomes slashed since 2008 and with scant subsequent improvement. The poor also own few assets. Aside from the inequity of such a situation, the macro concern is that the erosion of real incomes creeps up the earning scale so that middle earners eventually see an erosion of living standards. At some point, the decline in activity created by a fall in average incomes will lead to a recession.

I have tested this postulate by building a US inflation index comprised of price variations for oil, food and rent. This can be seen in the chart below where rent is weighted at 50%, food at 30% and energy at 20%. I term this price measure the Walmart Index since it is where most low earners tend to shop. The chart shows the relationship since 1934 between the US CPI and my adapted measure of the price index most relevant to the lives of the least well-off in America. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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WFC Studie: Sparpolitik kostet jährlich 2,3 Billionen US-Dollar

Posted by klausgabriel - 15. Januar 2014

Handelsblatt.com, 14/1

Hamburg, 14.01.2014 – Öffentliche Sparpolitik führt dazu, dass Arbeitskräfte und Produktionsmöglichkeiten ungenutzt bleiben. Eine Studie<http://worldfuturecouncil.us7.list-manage.com/track/click?u=fdf5f8a04d91dd7a784016d69&id=42cb4832b1&e=94b5679fae> der Stiftung World Future Council (WFC) gibt den Wert der dadurch weltweit verlorenen Produktion mit rund 2,3 Billionen US-Dollar an. Das entspricht dem Bruttoinlandsprodukt von Großbritannien. Allein die Eurozone verliert durch die Austeritätspolitik rund 580 Milliarden Euro.

Jakob von Uexküll, Gründer des World Future Council und des Alternativen Nobelpreises, kommentiert das Ergebnis: „Angesichts der gewaltigen Herausforderungen von Klimaschutz und Armutsüberwindung ist es absurd, dass wir so große ökonomische Potenziale ungenutzt lassen.“ Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Deutschlands armes Fünftel

Posted by hkarner - 19. Dezember 2013

Date: 18-12-2013
Source: Die Zeit

Unsere Grafik zeigt: Rund 16 Millionen Menschen sind in Deutschland unterprivilegiert. Doch der Anteil liegt deutlich unter dem Schnitt in Europa.

Die Zahl ist für Sozialpolitiker wesentlich: Wie hoch ist der Anteil der Menschen im Land, die von Armut bedroht sind? Das Statistische Bundesamt in Wiesbaden hat nun neue Zahlen vorgelegt, die wir zusammen mit dem Statistikportal Statista in einer Grafik zusammengefasst haben.

Demnach ist in Deutschland rund jeder fünfte Bürger – rund 16 Millionen Menschen – von Armut oder sozialer Ausgrenzung betroffen. Als von Armut bedroht gelten Singles, die weniger als 980 Euro im Monat zur Verfügung haben, bei Familien mit zwei Kindern liegt die Grenze bei 2.058 Euro.

Die Grafik zeigt auch: Im europaweiten Vergleich schneidet Deutschland besser ab als der EU-Durchschnitt. Zuletzt ist die Quote in Deutschland sogar leicht gesunken – im Gegensatz zu Krisenländern wie Griechenland, wo sie deutlich gestiegen ist.

Armutsrisiko

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HIGH LEVEL PANEL RELEASES RECOMMENDATIONS FOR WORLD’S NEXT DEVELOPMENT AGENDA

Posted by klausgabriel - 10. Juli 2013

High level panel

. An sich klingt das recht gut, der Teufel steckt allerdings im Detail: so geht man davon aus, dass das globale BIP bis 2030 verdoppelt werden muss. „Growth: Global output is set to double by 2030“ (Seite 18). Das hiesse globales Wachstum von durchschnittlich 4% (!) pro Jahr.  Armutsbekämpfng durch Wachstum – fällt denen nichts Besseres ein? (KG)

Eminent Persons from Around the World Call for a New Global Partnership to Eradicate Poverty and Transform Economies through Sustainable Development

The High Level Panel on the Post-2015 Development Agenda today released “A New Global Partnership: Eradicate Poverty and Transform Economies through Sustainable Development,” a report which sets out a universal agenda to eradicate extreme poverty from the face of the earth by 2030, and deliver on the promise of sustainable development. The report calls upon the world to rally around a new Global Partnership that offers hope and a role to every person in the world.

The Panel was established by United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and co-chaired by Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, Liberian President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf and United Kingdom Prime Minister David Cameron.

The Roadmap

In the report, the Panel calls for the new post-2015 goals to drive five big transformative shifts:

  • Leave No One Behind. After 2015 we should move from reducing to ending extreme poverty, in all its forms. We should ensure that no person – regardless of ethnicity, gender, geography, disability, race or other status – is denied basic economic opportunities and human rights. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Rise of the Global Middle Class

Posted by hkarner - 4. Juli 2013

Date: 03-07-2013
Source: BBC

Describing the shift as historic, the United Nations reports that the global middle class in China, India and Brazil will have propelled their countries’ economies to account for nearly half of world output by 2050. Defined by the Organization of Economic Co-operation and Development as people who earn or spend between $10 and $100 per day, the global middle class is set to grow exponentially in developing areas of the world. Such a change is already being driven by industrialization and improved communications in emerging economies, allowing them to take advantage of existing knowhow. This helps in attracting investment and innovation in ways not available to poorer countries until the 1990s. The UN also notes that this new middle class is set to demand better environmental policies and more transparency from their governments, further helping lift people out of abject poverty. – YaleGlobal

A growing middle class in China, India and Brazil will propel their economies to account for nearly half of world output by 2050

The United Nations describes it as a historic shift not seen for 150 years.

The new global middle class in China, India and Brazil have propelled their economies to equal the size of the industrialised G7 countries. By 2050, they are forecast to account for nearly half of world output, far surpassing the G7.

Plus, within a decade, the middle class in Europe and North America will be less than a third of the world’s total, down from more than half now.

The Brookings Institution estimates that there are 1.8 billion in the middle class, which will grow to 3.2 billion by the end of the decade.

Asia is almost entirely responsible for this growth. Its middle class is forecast to triple to 1.7 billion by 2020.

By 2030, Asia will be the home of 3 billion middle class people. It would be 10 times more than North America and five times more than Europe.

There is also substantial growth in the rest of the emerging world. The middle class in Latin America is expected to grow from 181 million to 313 million by 2030, led by Brazil. And in Africa and the Middle East, it is projected to more than double, from 137 million to 341 million.

So who counts as middle class?
According to organisations like the United Nations and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), it’s someone who earns or spends $10 to $100 per day.

That’s when you have disposable income and enough money to consume things like fridges, or think about buying a car.

As the UN suggests, the growth is being driven by industrialisation. The industrial revolution of the 19th Century transformed the economies of Britain, the US and Germany. The move from agrarian to industrial societies generated income rises that created the middle class.

Now it’s the turn of emerging economies, particularly in Asia. In Indonesia, for instance, investment now exceeds 30% of GDP, a sign that there is more manufacturing.

How the new middle class is growing around the world

Much of the growth in the region is due to China. It is undergoing a re-industrialisation process. As the economy was industrialised in 1978 after decades of central planning, it is upgrading its industry, which has hastened the move out of agriculture.

The tough question is, why are the major changes happening now? For most of the post-war period, the surprise was why poorer countries didn’t grow more quickly than rich ones.

Economic theory says that because they are further from the technology frontier, these countries can benefit from existing know-how, and thus can grow more quickly than rich ones, which grow only by innovating.

One of the reasons was hinted at by the Feldstein-Horioka paradox. The economists Martin Feldstein and Charles Horioka observed a positive correlation between national savings and national investment.

It’s a paradox because, if capital truly flowed to where returns were greatest – it should go to low-stock countries because investment experiences diminishing returns. So, there shouldn’t be a correlation.

It has helped to explain why investment and therefore know-how wasn’t getting to developing countries – one of the reasons why they didn’t “catch up”.

But, there was a notable change in the early 1990s.

Richard Freeman of Harvard describes it as the “great doubling.” The global labour force doubled to 3 billion people when China, India and Eastern Europe re-joined the world economy.

China’s “open door” policy took off in 1992, India turned outward after a 1991 balance of payments crisis and communism fell in the Soviet Union.

Those investment funds helped to generate the savings needed for emerging economies to industrialise. They also embodied the know-how that can help the catch-up process.

It is why the 2000s were the first time in which global GDP growth significantly outpaced the EU and US, and was driven increasingly by emerging economies.

Will the trend last?
One of the most remarkable feats in the world has been the lifting of about a billion people out of abject poverty in the past couple of decades.

If the industrialisation trend continues, then this century could witness some of the rapid improvements in living standards seen in the West during the 19th Century.

But, there are a number of challenges.

The UN notes that the new global middle class is likely to demand better environmental protection and more transparency in how government operates.

The importance of global integration is also why protectionism is warily watched by many.

The prize, which many will hope is in reach, is that global poverty is eliminated entirely within another couple of decades.

It is the reason why the Nobel Laureate Robert Lucas said that once you start thinking about economic growth and the improvements in standards of living, it is hard to stop.

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The world’s next great leap forward: Towards the end of poverty

Posted by hkarner - 30. Mai 2013

Date: 30-05-2013
Source: The Economist

Nearly 1 billion people have been taken out of extreme poverty in 20 years. The world should aim to do the same again

End of PovertyIN HIS inaugural address in 1949 Harry Truman said that “more than half the people in the world are living in conditions approaching misery. For the first time in history, humanity possesses the knowledge and skill to relieve the suffering of those people.” It has taken much longer than Truman hoped, but the world has lately been making extraordinary progress in lifting people out of extreme poverty. Between 1990 and 2010, their number fell by half as a share of the total population in developing countries, from 43% to 21%—a reduction of almost 1 billion people.

Now the world has a serious chance to redeem Truman’s pledge to lift the least fortunate. Of the 7 billion people alive on the planet, 1.1 billion subsist below the internationally accepted extreme-poverty line of $1.25 a day. Starting this week and continuing over the next year or so, the UN’s usual Who’s Who of politicians and officials from governments and international agencies will meet to draw up a new list of targets to replace the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), which were set in September 2000 and expire in 2015. Governments should adopt as their main new goal the aim of reducing by another billion the number of people in extreme poverty by 2030.

Nobody in the developed world comes remotely close to the poverty level that $1.25 a day represents. America’s poverty line is $63 a day for a family of four. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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India is part of an upside-down world

Posted by hkarner - 25. September 2012

Date: 25-09-2012
Source: The Financial Times By Gideon Rachman
The highway leading out of Delhi is lined with adverts for new housing developments with names such as “Exotica Dreamville”. A typical hoarding shows a smiling young couple, standing on a manicured lawn, under the slogan: “Lifestyle is here.”

Keep driving, however, deep into the neighbouring state of Uttar Pradesh, and you will find lifestyles that are neither exotic nor the stuff of dreams. On the outskirts of the city of Budaun, many of the children show signs of malnourishment. Goats, buffalo, cows and camels roam the filthy streets. Unicef, the UN agency for children, is running a campaign to equip all the houses in the district with a modern toilet. It is also trying to find new work for the “manual scavengers”, who make their living by cleaning dry latrines by hand. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Konsumgüter-Riese reagiert auf neue Armut in Europa

Posted by hkarner - 27. August 2012

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27. August 2012, 08:46 Uhr

Unilever

Konsumgüter-Riese reagiert auf neue Armut in Europa

“Die Armut kehrt nach Europa zurück” - der drittgrößte Konsumgüterhersteller der Welt reagiert auf die Euro-Krise. Künftig will Unilever auch in der EU Lektionen anwenden, die man in Ländern wie Indonesien gelernt hat: günstigere Markenartikel und vor allem kleinere Packungen.

Berlin – Der Konsumgüterkonzern Unilever stemmt sich gegen die Krise im europäischen Markt. Das Unternehmen wirbt aggressiv um Konsumenten mit geringem Einkommen. “Die Armut kehrt nach Europa zurück”, sagte Europa-Chef Jan Zijderveld der “Financial Times Deutschland”. “Wenn ein Spanier nur noch durchschnittlich 17 Euro pro Einkauf ausgibt, dann kann ich ihm kein Waschmittel für die Hälfte seines Budgets verkaufen.” Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Now for the good news

Posted by hkarner - 10. März 2012

Date: 01-03-2012
Source: The Economist

Poverty has fallen in all regions of the world

THE past four years have seen an economic crisis coincide with a food-price spike. That must surely have boosted the number of the world’s poor (especially since food inflation hits the poor hardest)—right? Wrong.

New estimates of the numbers of the world’s poor by the World Bank’s Development Research Group show that for the first time ever, poverty—defined as the number and share of people living below $1.25 a day (at 2005 prices)—fell in every region of the world in 2005-08.

Half the long-term decline is attributable to China, which has taken 660m people out of poverty since the early 1980s.

But the main contribution to the recent turnaround is Africa. Its poverty headcount rose at every three-year interval between 1981 and 2005, the only continent where this happened. But in 2008, it fell by 12m, or five percentage points to 47%—the first time less than half of Africans have been below the poverty line. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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