Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘LTRO’

ECB’s Draghi Gives Nod to Weaker Euro

Posted by hkarner - 9. August 2014

Date: 09-08-2014
Source: The Wall Street Journal

European Central Bank Pauses on Rates After Easing Measures in June, Despite Weak Inflation

Draghi ccMario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank.

FRANKFURT—European Central Bank President Mario Draghi signaled Thursday he was pleased with the recent decline in the euro’s exchange rate and outlined a number of forces that may weaken it further—providing a potential boost to weak inflation in the region.

Mr. Draghi, at his monthly news conference after the bank held its key interest rates at record lows, made unusually blunt comments about exchange rates. Central bankers typically shy away from such direct remarks on currencies.

Instead, Mr. Draghi offered a long list of reasons why the euro has cheapened, which in addition to raising inflation should provide a boost to the bloc’s fragile economic recovery via stronger exports.

“The fundamentals for a weaker exchange rate are today much better than they were two or three months ago,” Mr. Draghi said. Since a recent peak around $1.40 in the spring, the euro has fallen steadily. The currency, which had been trading at $1.3386 just before Mr. Draghi’s comments, fell to $1.3340 after the news conference before recovering slightly. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Euro Area – Q&A on QE

Posted by hkarner - 15. Juli 2014

Posted on by iMFdirect

By Reza Moghadam and Ranjit Teja 

As inflation has sunk in the euro area, talk of quantitative easing (QE)—and misgivings about it—have soared. Some think QE is not needed; others that it would not work; and yet others that it only creates asset bubbles and may even be “illegal.” In its latest report on the euro area, the IMF assesses recent policy action positively but adds that “… if inflation remains too low, the ECB should consider a substantial balance sheet expansion, including through asset purchases.” Given all the reservations, would the juice be worth the squeeze?


QE Blog-2.001

QE Blog-3.002

Q1.      What is QE and how would it differ from other ECB balance sheet expansions?

A1.      QE at heart is a sustained expansion of a central bank’s balance sheet—something all major central banks have done since the onset of the crisis. Against a backdrop of reduced wholesale funding, the European Central Bank (ECB) launched 3-year Long Term Refinancing Operations (LTROs) in 2012, which significantly expanded reserve money as the ECB offered funding to banks against eligible collateral. The hope was that stable multi-year funding would encourage banks to restart lending and support activity. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Central Bank Smackdown

Posted by hkarner - 7. Juli 2014

I can only agree 100% to the BIS Chapter! (hfk)

By John Mauldin

July 5, 2014

Smackdown: smack·down, ˈsmakˌdoun/, noun, US informal

1.  a bitter contest or confrontation.

“the age-old man versus Nature smackdown”

2.  a decisive or humiliating defeat or setback.

The term “smackdown” was first used by professional wrestler Dwayne Johnson (AKA The Rock) in 1997. Ten years later its use had become so ubiquitous that Merriam-Webster felt compelled to add it to their lexicon. It may be Dwayne Johnson’s enduring contribution to Western civilization, notwithstanding and apart from his roles in The Fast and The Furious movie series. All that said, it is quite the useful word for talking about confrontations that are more for show than actual physical altercations.

And so it is that on a beautiful July 4 weekend we will amuse ourselves by contemplating the serious smackdown that central bankers are visiting upon each other. If the ramifications of their antics were not so serious, they would actually be quite amusing. This week’s shorter than usual letter will explore the implications of the contretemps among the world’s central bankers and take a little dive into yesterday’s generally positive employment report.

BIS: The Opening Riposte Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Ghizzoni: “Italien braucht mehr Investitionen”

Posted by hkarner - 20. Juni 2014

Interview | Thesy Kness-Bastaroli, derstandard.at, 20. Juni 2014, 05:40

GhizzoniIn Wien soll die erste mobile Pop-up-Filiale vorgestellt werden, sagt der Chef der Bank-Austria-Mutter Unicredit, Federico Ghizzoni

STANDARD: Wie bewerten Sie den geplanten Schuldenschnitt bei der Hypo Alpe Adria Bank?

Ghizzoni: Die Tatsache, dass die Garantie für die Gläubigerbanken nicht anerkannt wird, wirkt sich zweifellos negativ auf das Vertrauen gegenüber Banken mit Staatsgarantien aus. Auch schließe ich kurzfristig eine Erhöhung der Finanzierungskosten für die Banken nicht aus. Die Entscheidung ist nicht zu unterschätzen.

STANDARD: Wie entwickelt sich das Geschäft in Osteuropa? Planen Sie weitere Beteiligungsveräußerungen in Osteuropa?

Ghizzoni: Das Geschäft in Osteuropa läuft 2014 besser als erwartet. Nachdem wir die Beteiligung in Kasachstan und in den baltischen Staaten verkauft und die Fusion zwischen den Banken in Tschechien und der Slowakei abgeschlossen haben, stehen wir in Verhandlungen über den Verkauf der Beteiligung in der Ukraine. Damit ist unsere Restrukturierung für Osteuropa praktisch abgeschlossen.

STANDARD: Welche Auswirkungen hat die derzeitige politische Krise zwischen Russland und der Ukraine auf das Unicredit-Geschäft?

Ghizzoni: Unsere Ausleihungen in der Ukraine machen nur 0,4 Prozent der gesamten Ausleihungen und vier Prozent der Ausleihungen in Osteuropa aus. Im ersten Quartal schrieb die Ukrsotsbank einen Nettoverlust von 4,9 Millionen Euro. In Russland läuft das Geschäft weiterhin gut.

STANDARD: Unicredit hat in den letzten Jahren zig Milliarden Goodwill- und Kreditabschreibungen getätigt. Kommt noch mehr?

Ghizzoni: Es gibt noch Goodwill-Positionen in Polen, Deutschland oder bei Pioneer. Ich sehe derzeit keine Notwendigkeit, diese abzuschreiben. Wir sind mit dem Goodwill auf Vorkrisenstand. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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EZB gibt Merkmale der geldpolitischen Geschäfte mit Abwicklung bis Dezember 2016 bekannt

Posted by hkarner - 5. Juni 2014

EZB Flames5. Juni 2014 – EZB Preseaussendung

EZB LogoDer EZB-Rat hat heute beschlossen, seine Hauptrefinanzierungsgeschäfte (HRGs) so lange wie erforderlich, mindestens jedoch bis zum Ende der im Dezember 2016 endenden Mindestreserve-Erfüllungsperiode des Eurosystems als Mengentender mit Vollzuteilung abzuwickeln.Des Weiteren hat der EZB-Rat beschlossen, die längerfristigen Refinanzierungsgeschäfte (LRGs) mit dreimonatiger Laufzeit, die vor Ablauf der im Dezember 2016 endenden Mindestreserve-Erfüllungsperiode zuzuteilen sind, als Mengentender mit Vollzuteilung durchzuführen. Die Zinssätze für diese dreimonatigen LRGs werden dem durchschnittlichen Zinssatz der während der Laufzeit des jeweiligen Geschäfts durchgeführten HRGs entsprechen.

Darüber hinaus hat der EZB-Rat beschlossen, nach dem am 10. Juni 2014 zuzuteilenden Geschäft die Refinanzierungsgeschäfte des Eurosystems mit einer Sonderlaufzeit von der Dauer einer Erfüllungsperiode einzustellen.

Der EZB-Rat hat ferner beschlossen, nach dem am 10. Juni 2014 zuzuteilenden Geschäft die wöchentliche Feinsteuerungsoperation zur Neutralisierung der im Rahmen des Programms für die Wertpapiermärkte zugeführten Liquidität auszusetzen.

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European Banks Show Signs of Healing

Posted by hkarner - 29. Januar 2014

Let’s wait for the Asset Quality Review of the Eurozone Banks! (hfk)

Date: 29-01-2014
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Cleanups Speed Up as Institutions Add Capital, Shed Assets

Intesa paybackLONDON—At long last, Europe’s banks are showing nascent signs of healing.

Intesa Sanpaolo SpA, Italy’s second-largest bank by assets, said Tuesday that it has fully repaid a €36 billion ($49 billion) loan it took from the European Central Bank during the heat of the Continent’s financial crisis. The bank moved faster than expected to pay back loans that don’t come due until the end of the year.

Elsewhere, Europe’s banks have recently entered an accelerated cleanup phase. After years of criticism by investors and regulators for moving too slowly, the region’s banks are improving their capital cushions by either issuing new shares or hastening the process of shedding unwanted assets. The shift comes as the ECB prepares to conduct a round of financial-health checks on about 130 of Europe’s biggest banks.

Bank of Ireland PLC, Austria’s Raiffeisen Bank International AG and France’s Credit Agricole SA all have sold new shares or issued capital-boosting bonds in recent weeks to U.S. and European investors who are eager to tap the Continent’s recovery prospects and an improving picture for European bank earnings and dividends. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Crisis Management: Europe Eyes Anglo-Saxon Model with Envy

Posted by hkarner - 7. Januar 2014

Date: 06-01-2014

Should the European Central Bank follow the Anglo-Saxon model and buy up vast quantities of sovereign bonds in attempt to finally overcome the euro crisis? ECB head Mario Draghi is under pressure to act now. But what are his options?

Britain has it better. At least that’s how it seems. The country’s financial situation is improving, even though it was worse off than many euro-zone member states at the beginning of the financial crisis. It was more bloated, its financial sector was in bad shape and the country had one of the largest real estate bubbles and highest rates of private debt in the world.

But while large areas of the euro zone continue to be plagued by mass unemployment and stagnation, the United Kingdom now appears to be on the road to health. The year 2014 could even see economic growth of 3 percent. Furthermore, investment is growing and the real estate sector is making progress.
In 2008, the situation in the UK wasn’t all that much different than that in Spain. Yet while the British are slowly leaving the crisis behind, the Spanish would be ecstatic if they could avoid further economic contraction this year. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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2014 Outlook: Annus Not-So-Horribilis

Posted by hkarner - 1. Januar 2014

Author: Marc Chandler  ·  December 26th, 2013  RGE EconoMonitor· 


US: The broad characteristics of the investment climate are unlikely to change very much in the first part of next year.  The largest policy change is the  beginning of the long awaited slowing of the Federal Reserve’s long-term asset purchases.  The process will likely be gradual and may take the better part of 2014 to come to a complete stop.  The drag from fiscal policy will likely lessen. The roughly 1.7% annual growth in employment since 2009 is set to continue and underpin a continued expansion of the world’s largest economy.

EUROZONE: The ordo-liberalism as articulated by Germany, embodied in treaty agreements, and enshrined by the European Central Bank condemns the euro area, and by implication, many of the countries that move in its orbit, to a protracted period of slow growth and low inflation.    The institutional evolution in Europe continues and the pieces of an imperfect banking union are being established.   The ECB is likely to respond to the adverse monetary developments, but unless the perceived threat of deflation increases, it is likely to refrain from extreme measures, such as a negative deposit rate or outright purchase of bonds.
CHINA: The Chinese economy may slow modestly in the coming quarters, though officials will likely respond to evidence that growth is falling below 7.0%. The focus has shifted toward the implementation of reforms announced by the Third Plenum.   These entail financial and governing reforms.  The special economic zone in Shanghai will be viewed as a test case of the ability of the reformers to implement their program over the obstacles posed by inertia, corruption, and outright opposition.
JAPAN: The first year of Abenomics has seen growth strengthen, deflation pressures ease, the yen weaken and Japanese equities advance smartly.  The early turbulence of Japanese government bonds has eased and nominal yields remain low (real rates negative).  The second year is bound to be more challenging, as the economy has lost momentum in the second half of 2013. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Monster That Is Europe

Posted by hkarner - 17. Dezember 2013

By John Mauldin

December 16, 2013

The Complacency of Consensus
The Sick (German) Banks of Europe
Where There Is One Cockroach…
It’s Quiet Out There. Maybe Too Quiet…

Here is this week’s letter, which will give you a head’s-up on a brewing banking crisis in Europe.

This week, Geert Wilders and his Party for Freedom in the Netherlands and Marine Le Pen of the Front National (FN) of France held a press conference in The Hague to announce that they will be cooperating in the elections for the European Parliament next spring and hope to form a new eurosceptic bloc. Their aim, as Mr. Wilders put it, is to “fight this monster called Europe,” while Ms. Le Pen spoke of a system that “has enslaved our various peoples.” They want to end the common currency, remove the authority of Brussels over national budgets, and undo the project of integration driven with so much idealism by two generations of European politicians. (My thought about Marine Le Pen after looking at her policies is that if Marine Le Pen is the answer for France, they are asking the wrong question.)

For now, Le Pen and Wilders are in a decided, if growing, minority (think Beppe Grillo, who got 25% in Italy in the last election). But as the graphic below suggests, the stitching that is holding the Frankenstein of Europe together seems to be getting a little frayed. And my new worry is that the real monster, one likely to pop many more of the tenuous stitches that hold things together, could be lurking in German banks. This week’s letter explores a problem as “hidden” as subprime was back in 2006. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Weapons of Last Resort: ECB Considers Extreme Crisis Measures

Posted by hkarner - 6. Dezember 2013

Date: 05-12-2013


EZB ccThe ECB’s headquarters in Frankfurt: What weapons does the central bank still have at its disposal for combatting the euro crisis?

The European Central Bank wants to spur lending by banks in Southern Europe, but conventional methods have shown little success so far. On Thursday, ECB officials will consider monetary weapons that were previously considered taboo.

From Mario Drahgi’s perspective, the euro zone has already been split for some time. When the head of the powerful European Central Bank looks at the credit markets within the currency union, he sees two worlds. In one of those worlds, the one in which Germany primarily resides, companies and consumers are able to get credit more cheaply and easily than ever before. In the other, mainly Southern European world, it is extremely difficult for small and medium-sized businesses to get affordable loans. Fears are too high among banks that the debtors will default.

For Draghi and many of his colleagues on the ECB Governing Council, this dichotomy is a nightmare. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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