Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Nach den kristallklaren Aussagen des Föhrenbergkreises zur Finanzwirtschaft aus dem Jahr 1999 gibt es jetzt einen neuen Arbeitskreis zum Thema.

Mit ‘LTRO’ getaggte Beiträge

European Banks Show Signs of Healing

Geschrieben von hkarner - 29. Januar 2014

Let’s wait for the Asset Quality Review of the Eurozone Banks! (hfk)

Date: 29-01-2014
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Cleanups Speed Up as Institutions Add Capital, Shed Assets

Intesa paybackLONDON—At long last, Europe’s banks are showing nascent signs of healing.

Intesa Sanpaolo SpA, Italy’s second-largest bank by assets, said Tuesday that it has fully repaid a €36 billion ($49 billion) loan it took from the European Central Bank during the heat of the Continent’s financial crisis. The bank moved faster than expected to pay back loans that don’t come due until the end of the year.

Elsewhere, Europe’s banks have recently entered an accelerated cleanup phase. After years of criticism by investors and regulators for moving too slowly, the region’s banks are improving their capital cushions by either issuing new shares or hastening the process of shedding unwanted assets. The shift comes as the ECB prepares to conduct a round of financial-health checks on about 130 of Europe’s biggest banks.

Bank of Ireland PLC, Austria’s Raiffeisen Bank International AG and France’s Credit Agricole SA all have sold new shares or issued capital-boosting bonds in recent weeks to U.S. and European investors who are eager to tap the Continent’s recovery prospects and an improving picture for European bank earnings and dividends. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Crisis Management: Europe Eyes Anglo-Saxon Model with Envy

Geschrieben von hkarner - 7. Januar 2014

Date: 06-01-2014

Should the European Central Bank follow the Anglo-Saxon model and buy up vast quantities of sovereign bonds in attempt to finally overcome the euro crisis? ECB head Mario Draghi is under pressure to act now. But what are his options?

Britain has it better. At least that’s how it seems. The country’s financial situation is improving, even though it was worse off than many euro-zone member states at the beginning of the financial crisis. It was more bloated, its financial sector was in bad shape and the country had one of the largest real estate bubbles and highest rates of private debt in the world.

But while large areas of the euro zone continue to be plagued by mass unemployment and stagnation, the United Kingdom now appears to be on the road to health. The year 2014 could even see economic growth of 3 percent. Furthermore, investment is growing and the real estate sector is making progress.
In 2008, the situation in the UK wasn’t all that much different than that in Spain. Yet while the British are slowly leaving the crisis behind, the Spanish would be ecstatic if they could avoid further economic contraction this year. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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2014 Outlook: Annus Not-So-Horribilis

Geschrieben von hkarner - 1. Januar 2014

Author: Marc Chandler  ·  December 26th, 2013  RGE EconoMonitor· 


US: The broad characteristics of the investment climate are unlikely to change very much in the first part of next year.  The largest policy change is the  beginning of the long awaited slowing of the Federal Reserve’s long-term asset purchases.  The process will likely be gradual and may take the better part of 2014 to come to a complete stop.  The drag from fiscal policy will likely lessen. The roughly 1.7% annual growth in employment since 2009 is set to continue and underpin a continued expansion of the world’s largest economy.

EUROZONE: The ordo-liberalism as articulated by Germany, embodied in treaty agreements, and enshrined by the European Central Bank condemns the euro area, and by implication, many of the countries that move in its orbit, to a protracted period of slow growth and low inflation.    The institutional evolution in Europe continues and the pieces of an imperfect banking union are being established.   The ECB is likely to respond to the adverse monetary developments, but unless the perceived threat of deflation increases, it is likely to refrain from extreme measures, such as a negative deposit rate or outright purchase of bonds.
CHINA: The Chinese economy may slow modestly in the coming quarters, though officials will likely respond to evidence that growth is falling below 7.0%. The focus has shifted toward the implementation of reforms announced by the Third Plenum.   These entail financial and governing reforms.  The special economic zone in Shanghai will be viewed as a test case of the ability of the reformers to implement their program over the obstacles posed by inertia, corruption, and outright opposition.
JAPAN: The first year of Abenomics has seen growth strengthen, deflation pressures ease, the yen weaken and Japanese equities advance smartly.  The early turbulence of Japanese government bonds has eased and nominal yields remain low (real rates negative).  The second year is bound to be more challenging, as the economy has lost momentum in the second half of 2013. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Monster That Is Europe

Geschrieben von hkarner - 17. Dezember 2013

By John Mauldin

December 16, 2013

The Complacency of Consensus
The Sick (German) Banks of Europe
Where There Is One Cockroach…
It’s Quiet Out There. Maybe Too Quiet…

Here is this week’s letter, which will give you a head’s-up on a brewing banking crisis in Europe.

This week, Geert Wilders and his Party for Freedom in the Netherlands and Marine Le Pen of the Front National (FN) of France held a press conference in The Hague to announce that they will be cooperating in the elections for the European Parliament next spring and hope to form a new eurosceptic bloc. Their aim, as Mr. Wilders put it, is to “fight this monster called Europe,” while Ms. Le Pen spoke of a system that “has enslaved our various peoples.” They want to end the common currency, remove the authority of Brussels over national budgets, and undo the project of integration driven with so much idealism by two generations of European politicians. (My thought about Marine Le Pen after looking at her policies is that if Marine Le Pen is the answer for France, they are asking the wrong question.)

For now, Le Pen and Wilders are in a decided, if growing, minority (think Beppe Grillo, who got 25% in Italy in the last election). But as the graphic below suggests, the stitching that is holding the Frankenstein of Europe together seems to be getting a little frayed. And my new worry is that the real monster, one likely to pop many more of the tenuous stitches that hold things together, could be lurking in German banks. This week’s letter explores a problem as “hidden” as subprime was back in 2006. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Weapons of Last Resort: ECB Considers Extreme Crisis Measures

Geschrieben von hkarner - 6. Dezember 2013

Date: 05-12-2013


EZB ccThe ECB’s headquarters in Frankfurt: What weapons does the central bank still have at its disposal for combatting the euro crisis?

The European Central Bank wants to spur lending by banks in Southern Europe, but conventional methods have shown little success so far. On Thursday, ECB officials will consider monetary weapons that were previously considered taboo.

From Mario Drahgi’s perspective, the euro zone has already been split for some time. When the head of the powerful European Central Bank looks at the credit markets within the currency union, he sees two worlds. In one of those worlds, the one in which Germany primarily resides, companies and consumers are able to get credit more cheaply and easily than ever before. In the other, mainly Southern European world, it is extremely difficult for small and medium-sized businesses to get affordable loans. Fears are too high among banks that the debtors will default.

For Draghi and many of his colleagues on the ECB Governing Council, this dichotomy is a nightmare. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Das Urproblem der EZB wird erneut akut

Geschrieben von hkarner - 14. November 2013

Posted By Markus Diem Meier On 13. November 2013 @ 05:00, Never Mind the Markets: http://blog.tagesanzeiger.ch/nevermindthemarkets

Draghi cc

Die Europäische Zentralbank hat ihren Leitzins auf ein historisches Tief von noch 0,25 Prozent gesenkt. In Deutschland ist man darüber empört und in der Schweiz besorgt. Dabei ist selbst der tiefere Zinssatz noch viel zu hoch.

Für den angemessenen Leitzins gibt es unter Ökonomen und Notenbankern eine beliebte einfache Formel: die Taylor-Regel. Sie zeigt, wo der Leitzins in Abhängigkeit der vorherrschenden Konjunkturlage einer Volkswirtschaft sein muss, damit die Geldpolitik wieder zu einem konjunkturellen Ausgleich führt. Je stärker die Inflation die Zielinflation einer Notenbank unterschreitet und je tiefer das konjunkuturelle Wachstum unter dem Normalwachstum (dem so genannten Potenzialwachstum) liegt, je tiefer muss der Leitzins sein und umgekehrt. Die Arbeitslosigkeit ist in der Regel indirekt berücksichtigt, da ein zu tiefes (konjunkturelles) Wachstum (im Vergleich zum Potenzialwachstum) mit einer hohen konjunkturellen Arbeitslosigkeit einhergeht. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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ECB Comes Under Pressure Over Low Inflation

Geschrieben von hkarner - 7. November 2013

Date: 06-11-2013
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Economic, Political Obstacles to Steer Euro Zone Away From Stagnation Abound

FRANKFURT—The European Central Bank is coming under pressure from financial markets and governments to take steps to steer the euro zone away from excessively low inflation and prolonged stagnation—though it confronts economic and political obstacles to doing more than it has done already.

ECB officials meet Thursday, just days after a report that consumer prices in the euro zone rose only 0.7% over the past 12 months, well below the ECB’s target of a little bit less than 2%. Italy’s finance minister on Tuesday called on the European Central Bank to acknowledge the slow growth in consumer prices and said a stronger euro should be reined in. Last month, France’s industry minister said the central bank must act against the strong euro.

Inflation “is way too low and the economic situation underscores that,” said Kenneth Rogoff, economics professor at Harvard University. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Draghi Had to Expect Calls for New Long-Term Refinancing Operation.

Geschrieben von hkarner - 14. Oktober 2013

Date: 14-10-2013
Source: The Wall Street Journal By SIMON NIXON

The crisis showed that no central bank can easily escape from its unconventional monetary policies.

Until recently, the European Central Bank could be forgiven for feeling a little smug. All of the major central banks have massively expanded their balance sheets since the start of the crisis. But while the U.S. Federal Reserve continues to accumulate assets to the tune of $85 billion a month—too nervous of the market’s reaction even to scale down its money-printing—the ECB balance sheet has been steadily shrinking.

This owes as much to luck as to judgment. The ECB found it politically very difficult to engage in Fed-style large-scale bond purchases, so at the height of the euro crisis in December 2011 it injected liquidity into the system by providing banks with cheap three-year loans instead. Since then, healthy banks have been repaying those loans, with the amount outstanding down to €660 billion ($894 billion) from €1.1 trillion at the peak.

While other central banks are still grappling for an exit strategy, the ECB has appeared to be already halfway out the door.

But the lesson of the crisis is that no central bank can escape from its unconventional monetary policies easily. Once markets have tasted the forbidden fruit, they have a habit of coming back for more. No surprise, then, that the ECB now finds itself under growing pressure to expand its balance sheet again with a new Long-Term Refinancing Operation. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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High Hopes, and Hurdles, for Bank Supervisor

Geschrieben von hkarner - 7. Oktober 2013

This is a great article, which explains why the European Banking Union – which is really the most essential element to safeguard the Euro – will have to fail, or at least will just be windowdressing. The risk is incredibly high: The debt of the banks in the Eurozone is apaproximately 40.000 billion €, of which 60 billion(!)  will be covered by the “banking insurance” in the ESM system (hfk)

Date: 07-10-2013
Source: The Wall Street Journal  By SIMON NIXON 

Bank Supervision Seen as Significant Piece of Euro-Zone Integration

It’s being billed as the decisive step that will draw a final line under the euro crisis; the most significant piece of euro-zone integration since the launch of the single currency; and the last chance to restore trust in Europe’s battered banking system, unfreeze the single market and allow credit to start flowing freely again.

Expectations could hardly be running higher ahead of the European Central Bank’s takeover of responsibility for euro-zone bank supervision—which will be preceded by a balance-sheet assessment incorporating an asset-quality review and stress test of about 130 banks accounting for about 85% of European banking assets.

European banks still owe €695 billion ($942 billion) of the €1.1 trillion they borrowed under the ECB’s long-term refinancing operations. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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BIZ: Die mächtigste Bank der Welt kündigt den Crash an

Geschrieben von hkarner - 20. September 2013

Diese Aussage ist ein Hammer! Sie wissen ja, wer die BIZ ist: die Bank der Banken! (hfk)

| Veröffentlicht: 19.09.13, 02:09 | 250 Kommentare

Die Bank für Internationalen Zahlungsausgleich (BIZ) bezeichnet die aktuelle Lage auf den Finanzmärkten als noch schlechter als vor der Lehman-Insolvenz. Die Warnung der BIZ könnte der Grund sein, warum die US-Notenbank entschied, weiter unbegrenzt Geld zu drucken: Die Zentralbanken haben die Kontrolle über die Schulden-Flut verloren und geben auf.

Caruana CC

Die Entscheidung der US-Notenbank Federal Reserve, weiter unbegrenzt Geld zu drucken (hier) könnte auf „Befehl von oben“ gefallen sein.

Offenbar dämmert den Zentralbanken, dass es eng wird.

Sehr eng. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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