Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Nach den kristallklaren Aussagen des Föhrenbergkreises zur Finanzwirtschaft aus dem Jahr 1999 gibt es jetzt einen neuen Arbeitskreis zum Thema.

Posts Tagged ‘Inflation’

EZB bereitet Minuszinsen für Banken vor

Posted by hkarner - 14. Mai 2014

Aus Sorge vor einer Deflation in der Euro-Zone denkt die EZB nach Informationen der ZEIT über Strafgebühren für Banken nach. Auch eine weitere Zinssenkung sei möglich.


Der Chefvolkswirt der Europäischen Zentralbank Peter Praet

Angesichts der niedrigen Inflationsraten in Europa denkt die Europäische Zentralbank (EZB) über immer radikalere Mittel der Geldpolitik nach. Nach Aussagen ihres Chefvolkswirts Peter Praet müssen die Banken wohl bald Strafgebühren bezahlen, wenn sie ihr Geld bei der Notenbank deponieren wollen. “Negative Einlagenzinsen sind ein möglicher Teil einer Kombination von Maßnahmen“, sagte Praet im Gespräch mit der ZEIT.

Eine solche Zinssenkung sei Teil einer breiter angelegten Offensive zur Abwehr der deflationären Tendenzen. “Wir bereiten eine Reihe von Dingen vor. Wir könnten den Banken erneut für einen längeren Zeitraum Geld leihen, möglicherweise gegen Auflagen. Wir könnten die Zinsen noch einmal senken. Auch eine Kombination mehrerer geldpolitischer Instrumente ist denkbar”, sagte der EZB-Chefvolkswirt. Der Leitzins liegt derzeit bereits auf dem Rekordtief von 0,25 Prozent.

Praet ist in der EZB als Direktoriumsmitglied für die Vorbereitung der Zinsentscheidungen zuständig und damit einer der einflussreichsten Notenbanker in Europa. Die Inflationsrate im Euro-Raum betrug zuletzt nur noch 0,7 Prozent. Zielmarke der EZB ist ein Wert von nahe, aber unter zwei Prozent. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Dirk Müller im Video „Die EZB wird reagieren müssen“

Posted by hkarner - 14. Mai 2014

14.05.2014, 12:27 Uhr, Handelsblatt.com

Müller ntvAnleger befürchten, die geringe Inflation könnte in Deflation übergehen. Börsenexperte Dirk Müller meint: „Man kann davon ausgehen, dass was von der EZB kommt.“ Das könnte dem Dax zu einem neuen Allzeithoch verhelfen.



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Sweden Turns Japanese

Posted by hkarner - 22. April 2014

Date: 21-04-2014KRUGMAN4
Source: Paul Krugman

Three years ago Sweden was widely regarded as a role model in how to deal with a global crisis. The nation’s exports were hit hard by slumping world trade but snapped back; its well-regulated banks rode out the financial storm; its strong social insurance programs supported consumer demand; and unlike much of Europe, it still had its own currency, giving it much-needed flexibility. By mid-2010 output was surging, and unemployment was falling fast. Sweden, declared The Washington Post, was “the rock star of the recovery.”

Then the sadomonetarists moved in.

The story so far: In 2010 Sweden’s economy was doing much better than those of most other advanced countries. But unemployment was still high, and inflation was low. Nonetheless, the Riksbank — Sweden’s equivalent of the Federal Reserve — decided to start raising interest rates.

There was some dissent within the Riksbank over this decision. Lars Svensson, a deputy governor at the time — and a former Princeton colleague of mine — vociferously opposed the rate hikes. Mr. Svensson, one of the world’s leading experts on Japanese-style deflationary traps, warned that raising interest rates in a still-depressed economy put Sweden at risk of a similar outcome. But he found himself isolated, and left the Riksbank in 2013.

Sure enough, Swedish unemployment stopped falling soon after the rate hikes began. Deflation took a little longer, but it eventually arrived. The rock star of the recovery has turned itself into Japan. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Socrates & the Pope: Overheard at the IMF’s Spring Meetings

Posted by hkarner - 15. April 2014

Posted on by iMFdirect

By IMFdirect editors

Socrates’ famous method to develop his students’ intellect was to question them relentlessly in an unending search for contradictions and the truth—or at the very least, a great quote.

The method was alive and well among the moderators, panelists and audiences of the IMF’s Spring Meetings seminars that took place alongside official discussions, where boosting high-quality growth, with a focus on the medium term, was at the top of the agenda.  Our editors fanned out and found a couple of big themes kept coming up.  Here are some of the highlights.

Monetary policy 

Lots of people are talking about what happens when the flood of easy money into emerging markets thanks to low interest rates in advanced economies like the United States slows even more than it has in the past year.

At a seminar on fiscal policy the discussion focused on the challenges facing policymakers as central banks slowly exit from unconventional monetary policy and interest rates begin rising.

A live poll of the audience found 63 percent said the global economy remains weak and unconventional monetary policies should remain in place.

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IMF: Europe’s Economic Outlook

Posted by hkarner - 13. April 2014

Posted on by iMFdirect

moghadamsmallBy Reza Moghadam

Economic growth across Europe is slowly picking up, which is good news. But the recovery is still modest and measures to boost economic growth and create jobs are important.

Western Europe: picking up the pace

The recovery projected last October for the euro area has solidified. This is reflected in our revised forecasts—e.g., the 2014 forecast for the euro area is up from 1 percent last October to 1.2 percent now, with important upgrades in countries like Spain. These revisions reflect the stronger data flow on the back of past policy actions, the revival of investor confidence, and the waning drag from fiscal consolidation. The positive impact on program countries is palpable—improving economies, lower spreads, and evidence of market access. We’ve also seen a welcome pick-up in growth in the UK (almost 3 percent is expected for 2014).

While stronger growth prospects and market sentiment are welcome, there is still much to do to solidify and pick up the pace of the recovery, not least because unemployment remains unacceptably high in too many places. Unfortunately, the headwinds in the euro area are many. We have previously emphasized the role of debt overhangs in firms and households, of fragmented financial markets, and of policy uncertainty. Action is being taken in all these areas, both at the country level and pan-European level, with steps to Banking Union—the single supervisor, the asset quality review and stress tests—especially important to ensuring the adequacy of bank capital and market confidence. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Fed Shows Growing Worry About Low Inflation

Posted by hkarner - 11. April 2014

Date: 10-04-2014
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Central Bankers Around World Have Expressed Angst About Weakness in Global Economy

IMF Inflation OutlookFederal Reserve officials are growing concerned the U.S. inflation rate won’t budge from low levels, the latest sign of angst among central bankers about weakness in the global economy.

The Fed began 2014 hopeful that a strengthening U.S. economy would push very low inflation from 1% toward the 2% level that officials associate with healthy business activity. Three months into a year marked by unusually harsh winter weather, which appears to have damped economic growth, there is little evidence of such movement.

Fed officials expressed worry about the persistence of low inflation at a policy meeting last month, according to minutes of the meeting released by the central bank Wednesday. They discussed at the March 18-19 meeting whether to make a more explicit commitment to keeping short-term interest rates pinned near zero until they saw inflation move up, but chose instead to take a wait-and-see approach.

Low inflation is high on the agenda of global central bankers and finance ministers gathering in Washington this week for semiannual meetings of the International Monetary Fund. Bank of Japan officials are trying to overcome more than a decade of on-again-off-again deflation, and inflation in Europe is running close to zero.
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Oligarchs and Money

Posted by hkarner - 8. April 2014

Date: 07-04-2014
Source: Paul Krugman

Econonerds eagerly await each new edition of the International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook. Never mind the forecasts, what we’re waiting for are the analytical chapters, which are always interesting and even provocative. This latest report is no exception. In particular, Chapter 3 — although billed as an analysis of trends in real (inflation-adjusted) interest rates — in effect makes a compelling case for raising inflation targets above 2 percent, the current norm in advanced countries.

This conclusion fits in with other I.M.F. research. Last month the fund’s blog — yes, it has one — discussed the problems created by “lowflation,” which is nearly as destructive as outright deflation. An earlier edition of the World Economic Outlook analyzed historical experience with high debt, and found that countries that were willing to let inflation erode their debt — including the United States — fared much better than those, like Britain after World War I, that clung to monetary and fiscal orthodoxy. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Euro Zone Edges Closer to Deflation

Posted by hkarner - 30. März 2014

Date: 28-03-2014
Source: The Wall Street Journal

German, Spanish Data Put Pressure on ECB to Consider Fresh Stimulus

EZ InflationFRANKFURT—Spanish consumer prices unexpectedly fell from a year ago and German inflation edged below 1%, suggesting the euro zone is edging closer to a paralyzing bout of extremely low inflation, or even broad-based price declines known as deflation.

The inflation figures from two of the bloc’s four-largest economies put further pressure on European Central Bank officials to consider fresh stimulus measures when they meet Thursday, including negative rates on bank deposits. Annual inflation in the euro zone was 0.7% in February, and the reports from Germany and Spain suggest it could weaken to as low as 0.5% when data for the entire bloc are released Monday. The ECB targets inflation of just below 2%.

Spanish consumer prices in March were 0.2% below levels seen a year ago, as prices for food and nonalcoholic beverages declined. This followed a 0.1% increase in prices in the previous month.

Annual inflation in Germany was 0.9%, while consumer prices were up 0.3% on the month.

“The net effect has been to boost expectations for ECB action next week,” said Marc Chandler, currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman, in a research note. The euro fell against the U.S. dollar as hopes for ECB interest-rate cuts rose. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Inflation and interest rates: Up, up and away

Posted by hkarner - 30. März 2014

Date: 29-03-2014
Source: The Economist

Higher inflation may be needed to leave extra-low interest rates behind

AT FIRST glance, rich-world central banks are going their separate ways. Cheered by sturdy growth figures, the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve are shuffling toward an exit from easy monetary policy; markets found Janet Yellen’s first Fed statement unexpectedly hawkish. The European Central Bank, in contrast, is tacking looser. On March 25th Jens Weidmann, president of the Bundesbank, suggested that the ECB might need to be more forceful in order to keep the euro-area economy out of the grips of deflation.

Interest ratesLook again, however, and the path forward appears similar across the rich world: low interest rates stretch off into the visible distance. The outlook is clearest in Europe, where the ECB may toy with negative rates as a means to fend off deflation. But even in America and Britain “normal” rates are a distant prospect. In February Mark Carney, the Bank of England’s governor, promised that eventual rate rises would happen gradually, and would level off below the pre-crisis norm. On March 19th Ms Yellen offered similar guidance. Markets project that short-term rates in both economies will still be just 2% in early 2017 (see chart 1), a level the euro zone will not hit until 2020.

As normalisation recedes toward the horizon, central bankers moan publicly about the costs of low rates. In February Daniel Tarullo, a Fed governor, said that they might encourage investors to take dangerous risks as they “reach for yield”. Even more worrying, low rates leave little cushion against future shocks. The Fed’s main policy rate was just 2% when Lehman Brothers failed in 2008, compared with 5% at the start of the 2001 recession and 8% when the downturn of 1990 began.

Yet rates are low for good reason: economies cannot withstand dearer credit. Central banks are battling against two sources of downward pressure on their main policy rates. One is the rock-bottom level of the real (ie, inflation-adjusted) interest rate needed to keep economies running at full tilt. This “natural” rate has been dragged down by long-term structural trends. A global savings glut is partly to blame: export powerhouses like the OPEC countries and China buy vast quantities of rich-world debt, depressing borrowing costs in the process. Rising inequality also adds to the pool of underused savings, since the rich save more of their income. Leaden real rates were reinforced by the financial crisis. Tumbling asset prices forced households to repay debts rapidly. As they struggled to deleverage, their interest in new borrowing and spending evaporated. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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ECB’s Draghi: Strong Euro Pulling Down Euro Zone Inflation

Posted by hkarner - 14. März 2014

Date: 14-03-2014
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Central Bank Concerned That Muted Price Pressures Could Undermine Europe’s Fragile Recovery

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi issued his strongest statement yet that the strong euro is pulling down inflation in the euro zone, making clear that the central bank is concerned that the appreciating euro could undermine the currency bloc’s fragile recovery.

$ € Exchange rate“The strengthening of the effective euro exchange over the past one-and-a-half years has certainly had a significant impact on our low rate of inflation and, given current levels of inflation, is therefore becoming increasingly relevant in our assessment of price stability,” Mr. Draghi said Thursday in a speech in Vienna.

Mr. Draghi’s comments pulled the euro down sharply. The common currency slumped from $1.3910 just before news of the speech was released to $1.3860 within minutes. It was trading around $1.3850 early evening in London. It also rapidly lost ground against the yen. The euro has been on a steady march upward for more a year.

The top euro zone central banker added a powerful voice to increasing concerns among policy makers across the euro zone that the strength of the euro is impacting inflation, which has been well below the central bank’s target of just under 2% for months. That could prompt the ECB to potentially implement measures designed to weaken the common currency.

Euro Falls on Draghi Remarks
As the euro rises, it cheapens the price of imports, thus putting downward pressure on the inflation index.

“The fact that he’s said this is quite a departure from where they’ve been on [euro strength] for almost forever…In the history of the ECB it’s almost unprecedented,” said Lorcan Roche Kelly, an analyst with Agenda Research in Ireland.

The exchange rate is “the single most known factor so far that could trigger ECB action, and a further appreciation would clearly make them consider further action,” Carsten Brzeski, an economist with ING Bank in Brussels, said. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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