Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Nach den kristallklaren Aussagen des Föhrenbergkreises zur Finanzwirtschaft aus dem Jahr 1999 gibt es jetzt einen neuen Arbeitskreis zum Thema.

Posts Tagged ‘Inflation’

Die Mär von der Allmacht der Zentralbanken

Posted by hkarner - 4. Juni 2014

03.06.2014 | 18:39 | Nikolaus Jilch (Die Presse)

Nowotny 2Notenbanken sind extrem mächtig, aber sie können die Wirtschaft nicht nach Belieben steuern. Das sagt auch OeNB–Chef Nowotny. Die EZB wird die Zinsen senken – aber auch ihr Spielraum ist begrenzt.

Wien. Im Grunde plagt die Eurozone dasselbe Problem wie viele Haushalte: Es fehlt an Geld. Und zwar im wahrsten Sinn des Wortes, denn die Banken vergeben einfach zu wenig Kredite – und ein Großteil des frischen Geldes wird durch die Banken bei der Kreditvergabe erst geschaffen. Derzeit fehlt es aber an frischem Geld – die Inflationsrate sinkt, es herrscht Disinflation.

Das hat Folgen: In der Eurozone ist die Teuerungsrate im Mai auf 0,5 Prozent gesunken, wie Eurostat am Dienstag mitteilte. Damit befindet sich das Gebiet der europäischen Währungsunion nur noch 0,6 Prozentpunkte von der Preisdeflation entfernt. Politiker, Banken und Anleger sind alarmiert, denn ein sinkendes Preisniveau benachteiligt Schuldner – und Schulden sind wahrlich genug im System. Vor allem für Regierungen wäre eine echte Deflation angesichts der Schuldenberge, die die EU-Staaten vor sich herschieben, eine Katastrophe. Seit Beginn der Eurokrise im Jahr 2010 war der Ruf nach einem Eingreifen der EZB nie lauter als jetzt.

Am Donnerstag wird die Europäische Zentralbank bei ihrer Sitzung wohl auch reagieren. Sie wird die Leitzinsen vermutlich von 0,25 auf 0,15 oder sogar glatte null Prozent senken – und Banken, die Zentralbankgeld bei der EZB bunkern, statt es zu verleihen, durch einen negativen Einlagezins bestrafen. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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ECB Aware of Risks From Low Inflation, Mario Draghi Says

Posted by hkarner - 29. Mai 2014

Date: 28-05-2014
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Draghi ccECB Chief Expresses Confidence That the Bank Has Tools to Stop Deflation

SINTRA, Portugal—The European Central Bank is aware of the risks associated with too long a period of ultralow inflation, the bank’s president Mario Draghi said Tuesday, though he said he was confident that the ECB has the tools to push consumer-price growth higher.

“We are confident we will deliver the close to 2%, but below 2%, objective,” Mr. Draghi said, referring to the ECB’s medium-term target.

He spoke at the conclusion of the ECB’s two-day conference in Sintra, near Portugal’s capital.

Annual euro-zone inflation was just 0.7% in April, far below that target. The persistent weakness of inflation, combined with a sluggish economy and weak credit dynamics, has prompted speculation in financial markets that the ECB will cut interest rates and take other stimulus measures when it meets on June 5. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Mario Draghi’s Ongoing Faustian Pact

Posted by hkarner - 28. Mai 2014

Author: Edward Hugh  ·  May 21st, 2014  ·  RGE EconoMonitor

Word has it that Mario Draghi is busily working up a new version of his “whatever it takes” methodology. This time the objective is not saving the Eurozone, but maintaining the region’s inflation at or near the ECBs official 2% inflation objective. The first time round the President of the Euro Area’s central bank had it easy, since market participants took him at his word and he effectively needed to do nothing to comply. This time though, as they say, it will be different.

Its getting towards two years now since Mario Draghi made that first famous “whatever it takes” promise for which he will either be feted eternally in the central bankers’ heaven or cursed perpetually in whatever their equivalent of hell is. During that time the tide of the Euro Area debt financing crisis has steadily been turned – perhaps the turning point came when Spain’s prime minister Mariano Rajoy decided not to apply for a full Troika bailout and got away with it, sometime around November 2012.

During the time since that first Draghi promise Spanish (and other periphery) yields have come down dramatically, from around 7% (in Spain’s case) to the current rate of just over 3%. Perhaps the steepest, and most surprising, part of that drop was between January and April 2014, a period in which speculation – often fueled by the ECB itself – was rife that a programme of quantitative easing was in preparation and likely to be launched in order to fend off the threat to Euro recovery presented by low inflation/deflation. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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EZB bereitet Minuszinsen für Banken vor

Posted by hkarner - 14. Mai 2014

Aus Sorge vor einer Deflation in der Euro-Zone denkt die EZB nach Informationen der ZEIT über Strafgebühren für Banken nach. Auch eine weitere Zinssenkung sei möglich.


Der Chefvolkswirt der Europäischen Zentralbank Peter Praet

Angesichts der niedrigen Inflationsraten in Europa denkt die Europäische Zentralbank (EZB) über immer radikalere Mittel der Geldpolitik nach. Nach Aussagen ihres Chefvolkswirts Peter Praet müssen die Banken wohl bald Strafgebühren bezahlen, wenn sie ihr Geld bei der Notenbank deponieren wollen. “Negative Einlagenzinsen sind ein möglicher Teil einer Kombination von Maßnahmen“, sagte Praet im Gespräch mit der ZEIT.

Eine solche Zinssenkung sei Teil einer breiter angelegten Offensive zur Abwehr der deflationären Tendenzen. “Wir bereiten eine Reihe von Dingen vor. Wir könnten den Banken erneut für einen längeren Zeitraum Geld leihen, möglicherweise gegen Auflagen. Wir könnten die Zinsen noch einmal senken. Auch eine Kombination mehrerer geldpolitischer Instrumente ist denkbar”, sagte der EZB-Chefvolkswirt. Der Leitzins liegt derzeit bereits auf dem Rekordtief von 0,25 Prozent.

Praet ist in der EZB als Direktoriumsmitglied für die Vorbereitung der Zinsentscheidungen zuständig und damit einer der einflussreichsten Notenbanker in Europa. Die Inflationsrate im Euro-Raum betrug zuletzt nur noch 0,7 Prozent. Zielmarke der EZB ist ein Wert von nahe, aber unter zwei Prozent. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Dirk Müller im Video „Die EZB wird reagieren müssen“

Posted by hkarner - 14. Mai 2014

14.05.2014, 12:27 Uhr, Handelsblatt.com

Müller ntvAnleger befürchten, die geringe Inflation könnte in Deflation übergehen. Börsenexperte Dirk Müller meint: „Man kann davon ausgehen, dass was von der EZB kommt.“ Das könnte dem Dax zu einem neuen Allzeithoch verhelfen.



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Sweden Turns Japanese

Posted by hkarner - 22. April 2014

Date: 21-04-2014KRUGMAN4
Source: Paul Krugman

Three years ago Sweden was widely regarded as a role model in how to deal with a global crisis. The nation’s exports were hit hard by slumping world trade but snapped back; its well-regulated banks rode out the financial storm; its strong social insurance programs supported consumer demand; and unlike much of Europe, it still had its own currency, giving it much-needed flexibility. By mid-2010 output was surging, and unemployment was falling fast. Sweden, declared The Washington Post, was “the rock star of the recovery.”

Then the sadomonetarists moved in.

The story so far: In 2010 Sweden’s economy was doing much better than those of most other advanced countries. But unemployment was still high, and inflation was low. Nonetheless, the Riksbank — Sweden’s equivalent of the Federal Reserve — decided to start raising interest rates.

There was some dissent within the Riksbank over this decision. Lars Svensson, a deputy governor at the time — and a former Princeton colleague of mine — vociferously opposed the rate hikes. Mr. Svensson, one of the world’s leading experts on Japanese-style deflationary traps, warned that raising interest rates in a still-depressed economy put Sweden at risk of a similar outcome. But he found himself isolated, and left the Riksbank in 2013.

Sure enough, Swedish unemployment stopped falling soon after the rate hikes began. Deflation took a little longer, but it eventually arrived. The rock star of the recovery has turned itself into Japan. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Socrates & the Pope: Overheard at the IMF’s Spring Meetings

Posted by hkarner - 15. April 2014

Posted on by iMFdirect

By IMFdirect editors

Socrates’ famous method to develop his students’ intellect was to question them relentlessly in an unending search for contradictions and the truth—or at the very least, a great quote.

The method was alive and well among the moderators, panelists and audiences of the IMF’s Spring Meetings seminars that took place alongside official discussions, where boosting high-quality growth, with a focus on the medium term, was at the top of the agenda.  Our editors fanned out and found a couple of big themes kept coming up.  Here are some of the highlights.

Monetary policy 

Lots of people are talking about what happens when the flood of easy money into emerging markets thanks to low interest rates in advanced economies like the United States slows even more than it has in the past year.

At a seminar on fiscal policy the discussion focused on the challenges facing policymakers as central banks slowly exit from unconventional monetary policy and interest rates begin rising.

A live poll of the audience found 63 percent said the global economy remains weak and unconventional monetary policies should remain in place.

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IMF: Europe’s Economic Outlook

Posted by hkarner - 13. April 2014

Posted on by iMFdirect

moghadamsmallBy Reza Moghadam

Economic growth across Europe is slowly picking up, which is good news. But the recovery is still modest and measures to boost economic growth and create jobs are important.

Western Europe: picking up the pace

The recovery projected last October for the euro area has solidified. This is reflected in our revised forecasts—e.g., the 2014 forecast for the euro area is up from 1 percent last October to 1.2 percent now, with important upgrades in countries like Spain. These revisions reflect the stronger data flow on the back of past policy actions, the revival of investor confidence, and the waning drag from fiscal consolidation. The positive impact on program countries is palpable—improving economies, lower spreads, and evidence of market access. We’ve also seen a welcome pick-up in growth in the UK (almost 3 percent is expected for 2014).

While stronger growth prospects and market sentiment are welcome, there is still much to do to solidify and pick up the pace of the recovery, not least because unemployment remains unacceptably high in too many places. Unfortunately, the headwinds in the euro area are many. We have previously emphasized the role of debt overhangs in firms and households, of fragmented financial markets, and of policy uncertainty. Action is being taken in all these areas, both at the country level and pan-European level, with steps to Banking Union—the single supervisor, the asset quality review and stress tests—especially important to ensuring the adequacy of bank capital and market confidence. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Fed Shows Growing Worry About Low Inflation

Posted by hkarner - 11. April 2014

Date: 10-04-2014
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Central Bankers Around World Have Expressed Angst About Weakness in Global Economy

IMF Inflation OutlookFederal Reserve officials are growing concerned the U.S. inflation rate won’t budge from low levels, the latest sign of angst among central bankers about weakness in the global economy.

The Fed began 2014 hopeful that a strengthening U.S. economy would push very low inflation from 1% toward the 2% level that officials associate with healthy business activity. Three months into a year marked by unusually harsh winter weather, which appears to have damped economic growth, there is little evidence of such movement.

Fed officials expressed worry about the persistence of low inflation at a policy meeting last month, according to minutes of the meeting released by the central bank Wednesday. They discussed at the March 18-19 meeting whether to make a more explicit commitment to keeping short-term interest rates pinned near zero until they saw inflation move up, but chose instead to take a wait-and-see approach.

Low inflation is high on the agenda of global central bankers and finance ministers gathering in Washington this week for semiannual meetings of the International Monetary Fund. Bank of Japan officials are trying to overcome more than a decade of on-again-off-again deflation, and inflation in Europe is running close to zero.
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Oligarchs and Money

Posted by hkarner - 8. April 2014

Date: 07-04-2014
Source: Paul Krugman

Econonerds eagerly await each new edition of the International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook. Never mind the forecasts, what we’re waiting for are the analytical chapters, which are always interesting and even provocative. This latest report is no exception. In particular, Chapter 3 — although billed as an analysis of trends in real (inflation-adjusted) interest rates — in effect makes a compelling case for raising inflation targets above 2 percent, the current norm in advanced countries.

This conclusion fits in with other I.M.F. research. Last month the fund’s blog — yes, it has one — discussed the problems created by “lowflation,” which is nearly as destructive as outright deflation. An earlier edition of the World Economic Outlook analyzed historical experience with high debt, and found that countries that were willing to let inflation erode their debt — including the United States — fared much better than those, like Britain after World War I, that clung to monetary and fiscal orthodoxy. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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