Posted by hkarner - 24. April 2013
Source: Project Syndicate
WASHINGTON, DC – One thing that experts know, and that non-experts do not, is that they know less than non-experts think they do. This much was evident at the just-completed Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank Group – three intense days of talks that brought together finance ministers, central bankers, and other policymakers.
Our economic expertise is limited in fundamental ways. Consider monetary and fiscal policies. Despite decades of careful data collection and mathematical and statistical research, on many large questions we have little more than rules of thumb. For example, we know that we should lower interest rates and inject liquidity to fight stagnation, and that we should raise policy rates and banks’ cash-reserve ratios to stifle inflation. Sometimes we rely on our judgment in combining interest-rate action with open-market operations. But the fact remains that our understanding of these policies’ mechanics is rudimentary.
These rules of thumb work (at least tolerably so) as a result of evolution. Over time, the wrong moves are penalized, and their users either learn by watching others or disappear. We get our monetary and fiscal policies right the same way that birds build their nests right. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Getaggt mit: Basu, Central Banks, Finanzkrise, Globalization, Growth, Inflation, Japan, Project Syndicate | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 20. April 2013
Source: The Canberra Times
Nations are keen to control globalization, welcoming the best ideas and talent and keeping away the problems, a task much easier said than done. Most nations appreciate a large choice in trendy products, hard-working and innovative immigrants, and a reputation for being cosmopolitan. The 2008 financial crisis enlarged rather than destroy government, fueled by fiscal stimulus spending, maintains Julie Novak in an opinion essay for the Canberra Times. “The consequence of this overspending was a dramatic increase in public-sector indebtedness, with some estimates indicating that debt owed by the globe’s taxpayers to each other, in the name of their governments, stands at more than $50 trillion,” Novak writes. “Conventional understandings of the arm’s-length relationship between fiscal and monetary policies, and the appropriate degree of monetary policy activism, have also been shaken to their core.” Long-term consequences could include skyrocketing costs for debt, stalled growth and protectionism. – YaleGlobal
The financial crisis prompted governments to spent heavily, perhaps taking on more debt than can be handled; stalled growth and protectionism could follow Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Getaggt mit: Canberra Times, Globalization, Yale | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 5. März 2013
Source: The Fiscal Times
Investors are less intent on pursuing cross-border profits, investing in overseas endeavors. A McKinsey Global Institute report measured money in the global financial system before and after the 2007-2008 financial crisis: In 2007, $11.8 trillion in investments and loans crossed borders; the figure for 2012 is $5 trillion. “McKinsey hedges the report by saying that some of the capital removed from the system was part of a necessary global correction,” reports David Francis for the Fiscal Times. “But it also warns that global growth would be extremely difficult without more money in the system.” The report presents two options, both posing challenges: Countries could become more isolationist, focusing on domestic development; this could stabilize markets, but sacrifice international growth. Or, financial institutions and policymakers could agree on global regulations that reduce risk in cross-border transactions. “But creating binding global financial regulations, and appointing a global authority to enforce them, would be extremely difficult,” Francis concludes. “Think of this authority like the International Monetary Fund with teeth, a kind of global S.E.C.” – YaleGlobal Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Getaggt mit: fiscal times, Globalization, Growth, McKinsey | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 7. Februar 2013
Competition among national governments to promote their markets in the global economy is increasingly intense. Governments are expected to regulate markets to reduce instabilities. In their pursuit of growth, many governments are timid, failing to govern their economies – missing global challenges and opportunities while neglecting social protections. Anthony D’Costa, professor and research director at the Asia Research Centre of the Copenhagen Business School, describes a strategy of economic nationalism in motion – less nation-centered and more cooperative, aiming for far-reaching, transformative policies, with an offensive rather than defensive stance and pragmatism rather than ideology. “Fostering national economic development and competitiveness, promoting national companies and brands, is part of the economic-nationalism-in-motion portfolio,” he notes. “Market-driven globalization is not incompatible with state intervention.” D’Costa urges countries to re-examine economic-nationalism tendencies that reinforce rising inequality and other social problems. – YaleGlobal
Selective engagement with the global economy, prioritizing growth, spurs inequality Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Getaggt mit: Competitiveness, D'Costa, Globalization, Yale | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 18. Dezember 2012
The US National Intelligence Council has issued a report describing “tectonic shifts” that are rapidly changing the world and will deliver a new global balance of power by 2030, as reported by Nicole Gaouette for Bloomberg. Major trends include “the end of U.S. global dominance, the rising power of individuals against states, a rising middle class whose demands challenge governments, and a Gordian knot of water, food and energy shortages” in addition to wider access to new technologies, shifting economic power, aging and growing populations, urbanization and growing demand for food and water. “The report reflects the consensus judgments of all 16 U.S. intelligence agencies, who consulted or contracted with academics, research institutes, political leaders and corporations in 14 countries and the European Union,” reports Gaouette. It must be noted that all these trends and factors have been addressed in YaleGlobal articles over the past decade. – YaleGlobal
Trends described in US National Intelligence Council report have all been described as globalization factors by YaleGlobal over past decade. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Getaggt mit: Bloomberg, Globalization, megatrends, tectonic shifts, USA | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 5. Dezember 2012
Source: YaleGlobal: Ernesto Zedillo
Many in the world point to the need for mechanisms to monitor and control globalization, particularly after a decade when debt crises in one country spread quickly around the globe. Yet as economic interdependence continues to build, governance is not keeping pace. Ernesto Zedillo is director of the Yale Center for the Study of Globalization, and as YaleGlobal Online marks its 10th anniversary, he reflects on globalization and its governance over the past decade. Developed countries have balked at sharing power with emerging economies. Likewise, nations do not want to disperse their power, and leaders resist pressures from domestic special interests. Attempts to reform international organizations, ensuring fair representation and sound procedures to address pending crises, have failed miserably. If anything, the gap between globalization and governance has only widened. The warning signs are there for numerous global crises that can only be resolved with cooperation. Zedillo urges political leaders to prepare their societies for the governance required to tackle the global crises. – YaleGlobal
Full benefits of globalization can’t be realized if leaders neglect global governance Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in weitere Artikel | Getaggt mit: Globalization, Governance, Yale, Zedillo | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 25. Oktober 2012
An essential reflection – one to which only Americans seem to be apt. This also, because the United States have had time and opportunity since 1790 to develop and debug their federal system (Alexander Hamilton). I would wish the European discussion took into consideration the experiences of the US and Switzerland with Federalism.
This is well reflected in a Spiegel article from September 2011
What strikes me: In well functioning federal systems there are obviously transfers (solidarity), but no liabilities by the federal institution for the debts of the single states. This was also the (correct) reason for the “NO BAILOUT CLAUSE” in the Euro foundation, which unfortunately was breached in April 2010 (Greece).
The concept of solidarity can only go well when tightly coupled with the concept of subsidiarity, i.e. every single state takes charge of its own problems and commits to solve them. This requires trust (and control) by the others.(hfk)
Source: Dani Rodrik Project Syndicate
Dani Rodrik is professor of international political economy at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government and a leading scholar of globalization and economic development. His most recent book is The Globalization Paradox: Democracy and the Future of the World Economy.
Countries, their political parties on both the left and right, must stop quibbling over outside influences over labor, financing, trade or more. They must decide if they want the good ideas and best practices that come with globalization and integration –or a narrow version of sovereignty. Harvard professor Dani Rodrik, writing for Project Syndicate, points to Europe: “[B]y denying the obvious fact that the eurozone’s viability depends on substantial restraints on sovereignty, Europe’s leaders are misleading their voters, delaying the Europeanization of democratic politics, and raising the political and economic costs of the ultimate reckoning.” The United States demonstrates that market integration, umbrella policies for the common good, agreement on restrictions that provide security and certainty, can be imposed on states and still be subject to accountability. Rodrik concludes that “We cannot have globalization, democracy, and national sovereignty simultaneously.” He urges Europe’s leaders to build “democratic space above the level of the nation-state” or give up the union. Delay in making the choices carries high costs. – YaleGlobal
Nations can’t have it all: globalization, sovereignty and national democracy require some give and take Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel, Beiträge von Mitgliedern | Getaggt mit: Europe, Finanzkrise, Globalization, Hamilton, Karner, Project Syndicate, Rodrik, Sovereignty, USA | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 22. Oktober 2012
Source: The Washington Post
The next US president faces tremendous economic challenges – with solutions that can only rile US voters. “The globalization model of the past 30 years is cracking up,” writes David M. Smick for the Washington Post. “And there appears to be no new model to replace it.” Despite vigorous national efforts at promotion, global trade is in decline. Trade imbalances, particularly on the agriculture side with the failed Doha Round; currency manipulations by numerous countries; wage demands; and technological advances that decrease the need for labor all challenge national quests for job growth and stability. Financing and credit remain restricted. Author and editor David M. Smick argues that eurozone troubles are at the heart of what he calls deglobalization – pulling back from financial and political engagement. Smick admits that globalization’s benefits have been subject to uneven distribution, but degloblization will reduce jobs, wages, wealth and savings. There are no easy, simple solutions. And that could trigger even greater inequalities. – YaleGlobal
Modern globalization , open trade, is a goose that lays golden eggs, but countries are killing it; eurozone troubles are at the heart of deglobalization
Here’s a prediction: The political party that controls the White House after January could, four years later, be out of power for a generation. The economic challenges are that daunting. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Getaggt mit: Europe, Finanzkrise, Globalization, USA, Washington Post | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 8. August 2012
Source: THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN, NYT
A big mismatch exists today between how U.S. C.E.O.’s look at the world and how many American politicians and parents look at the world — and it may be preventing us from taking our education challenge as seriously as we must.
For many politicians, “outsourcing” is a four-letter word because it involves jobs leaving “here” and going “there.” But for many C.E.O.’s, outsourcing is over. In today’s seamlessly connected world, there is no “out” and no “in” anymore. There is only the “good,” “better” and “best” places to get work done, and if they don’t tap into the best, most cost-efficient venue wherever that is, their competition will.
For politicians, it’s all about “made in America,” but, for C.E.O.’s, it is increasingly about “made in the world” — a world where more and more products are now imagined everywhere, designed everywhere, manufactured everywhere in global supply chains and sold everywhere. American politicians are still citizens of our states and cities, while C.E.O.’s are increasingly citizens of the world, with mixed loyalties. For politicians, all their customers are here; for C.E.O.’s, 90 percent of their new customers are abroad. The credo of the politician today is: “Why are you not hiring more people here?” The credo of the C.E.O. today is: “You only hire someone — anywhere — if you absolutely have to,” if a smarter machine, robot or computer program is not available. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Getaggt mit: Friedman, Globalization, NYT, Realwirtschaft | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 4. Juli 2012
The age of individual nations resolving economic problems on their own has passed. The global economy is synchronized – the struggles of countries like Greece, the US or Egypt are tightly interrelated. Three major concerns face countries in both the developed and developing world, argues Chrystia Freeland, writing for Reuters, and the response to these issues will determine the economic outlook for the 21st century: The first is the place of the nation-state within the global world economy, and the necessity that global currencies work together to ensure integration. Second is the failure of global capitalism to provide jobs and rising income to the middle class, which breeds discontent and political unrest. Finally, when countries achieve middle-class status, women stop having babies, increasing their own personal wealth but causing demographic shifts over the course of generations that drain their societies of labor. Discussions about fertility rates and demographic shifts are infrequent, in particularly how much the factor has contributed to Europe’s current debt struggles. No one country or society is immune to these global challenges, and it’s only by working together that societies and the world can achieve positive outcomes. – YaleGlobal
A global response is required on the challenges of nation-state’s role in the global economy and need for integrated currencies, supply of adequate jobs and adaptation to the shifting demographic rate
Chrystia Freeland Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Getaggt mit: currency, Demographics, Freeland, Globalization, Nation State, Reuters | Leave a Comment »