Lost Decade for Stocks

James Hamilton

Dec 28, 2009 6:59PM

Why were the aughts so nasty for stocks?

The U.S. ended the decade more or less where it began in terms of total employment.  

 

  

Source: FRED.

„Die Grenze ist erreicht“

aus „Science-orf“:

Die Welt steckt in der Wirtschaftskrise, Banken gingen pleite oder wurden mit Steuergeldern gerettet, ganze Länder sind bankrott. Der Ökonom Dirk Solte erklärt in einem Interview, dass die Finanzkrise im Grund eine Wertschöpfungskrise ist.

„Es ist auch noch nicht in Breite in den Köpfen, dass die Wertschöpfung nicht beliebig gesteigert werden kann – zum Beispiel wegen des Klimawandels. Man muss Umwelt, Wirtschaft, Sozial- und Steuersysteme interdisziplinär betrachten.“

Ganz im Sinne unserer Grundsatzbemerkungen. Die Grenze ist erreicht Solte

The Age of Deleveraging

aus John Mauldin’s weekly e-letter

This is the season when pundits feel compelled to make annual forecasts. I will make mine, as I traditionally do, in the first letter of January. But already we have seen a wide range of forecasted outcomes. Are we going to grow at 5-6% or at 1-2% or dip back into recession? Why such disparity? I think part of the reason is a basic disagreement on the nature of the just-lapsed recession. Today we explore that issue. Then I point you to a way to help those who are desperately in need and only wish they had our problems. For those interested, I enclose a picture of my new granddaughter.

And finally, I start the process of getting ready, after ten years, to actually buy some stocks. Yes, it is true. Am I throwing in the towel and becoming a bull, or do I just see an opportunity? Stay tuned.

It’s All About Deleveraging

I did a very interesting one-hour show this week with Tom Ashbrook on his National Public Radio syndicated radio show called On Point. About 20 minutes into the show, Professor Jeremy Siegel of Wharton came on, and we had a pleasant debate and lively Q and A with listeners. Jeremy of course was the bull, expecting that next year the US will grow by 5-6%. I was the „bear,“ expecting growth in the 1-2% range. You can listen in at http://www.onpointradio.org/2009/12/an-economic-warning. It’s also available as a podcast on iTunes („On Point with Tom Ashbrook“) for a few more days.

64 Mrd. Euro Garantien für Landesbanken

Wien (APA) – Die österreichischen Bundesländer haften mit fast 64 Mrd. Euro für „ihre“ Landesbanken. Diese Summe hat ein APA-Rundruf in den Landesregierungen ergeben. Die größte Haftung ist bekanntlich das Land Kärnten eingegangen – derzeit sind es 18 Mrd. Euro, mehr als das Achtfache eines Kärntner Jahresbudgets.

A Conversation with John Mauldin

With Damien Hoffman www.wallstcheatsheet.com.

John Mauldin coined the incredibly popular phrase, „Muddle Through Economy.“ If the next few years continue to drag along as we rebuild from the greatest credit bubble in history, then John’s term may become the catch phrase used by every financial journalist and economist in the land.

John is a passionate traveler with business partners all over the world. He also puts out a free newsletter to over one million people worldwide. This reach of friends and travels give John an excellent macro view of the world economy. Further, his multidisciplinary interests offer some unique insights into economics and human behavior.

Verlorenes Vertrauen: Das Tsunami Modell der Finanzkrise

Ein erfreulich reflexives Buch über die Finanzkrise, ganz frisch (heute in Wien vorgestellt!) Mit ausgezeichneten Case Stories, aus denen der Autor dann seine Theorie entwickelt. Fast von Daniel Gross’ Analysequalität, spannend geschrieben.  hfk

Wir erleben die größte Finanzkrise des 21. Jahrhunderts. Immer mehr Menschen sind Betroffene und verlieren das Vertrauen in das Wirtschaftssystem. Wie konnte es zu diesen Entwicklungen kommen?

Dem Experten und Autor des Buchs gelingt in spannender Weise der Vergleich zur zerstörerischen Kraft eines Tsunami, der nun scheinbar unerwartet über die Finanzwelt hereingebrochen ist. Dieses starke Bild entwickelt er anhand der jüngsten wirtschaftlichen Ereignisse zu einem eigenen Tsunami-Modell der Finanzwirtschaft.

NEW Predictions from the Nostradamus of Investing

From: John Mauldin, November 7.

Dear Fellow Investor,

My friends at Casey Research asked me to draft a quick note to you with my thoughts on their services. I’ve worked with Casey Research for years and when I think of them, one of the first things that comes to mind are quotes like this one from May 2008:

„Reduce your standard of living now (while the situation is still under control), greatly increase your savings (in gold, which is real money) and rig for greatly changed patterns of production, consumption, employment and business for a considerable time. The hurricane that’s just starting to hit the economy will both trigger and worsen problems in other areas.“

Was it Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson who said this? Ben Bernanke? Alan Greenspan? Of course not… Rather it was my friend, and legendary contrarian investor, Doug Casey, editor of The Casey Report.

Paulson, on the other hand, said this on May 16, 2008…

„Looking forward, I expect that financial markets will be driven less by the recent turmoil and more by broader economic conditions and, specifically, by the recovery of the housing sector.“

Why are investors still listening to those who missed the entire problem (let alone re-appoint them)? And those who not only missed the problem, but mis-diagnosed the solutions?

More Problems for Ireland as Fitch Downgrades

„Fitch downgraded Ireland’s long-term rating to ‘AA- ‘ from ‘AA+’, with a stable outlook. It said the move reflected the severity of the decline in nominal GDP and the exceptional rise in government liabilities.“  According to Fitch Ratings, „gross government debt including NAMA (National Asset Management Agency) liabilities will rise to over 110% of GDP by the end of 2010 (77% excluding NAMA). As recently as the end of 2007, gross government debt was just 25% of GDP. The rise in debt is likely to push the ratio of debt interest payments to revenue above 15%, one of the highest among Fitch-rated sovereigns in the ‘AA’ range, reducing fiscal flexibility.“  (via Reuters and Wall Street Journal)

Does Financial Innovation promote Economic Growth?

Wednesday, November 4, 2009 Rick Bookstaber Blog

I participated in an Oxford-style debate at The Economist’s Buttonwood Gathering a couple of weeks ago. The proposition for the debate was Financial Innovation Boosts Economic Growth. 

On the pro side of the proposition were Myron Scholes, the chairman of Platinum Grove and Robert Reynolds, the CEO of Putnam, and on the con side were Jeremy Grantham, the CEO of GMO and me. This was the first time I had participated in a formal debate, as I suspect it was for the others. When we came out onto the stage, I overheard one person in the audience say, with a British accent, “Well, they obviously have never been in an Oxford debate before.” I don’t know what we did wrong, but it looks like we even messed up our entrance. 

Unsere Vision 2014 – Fertig!

Beiliegend die Vision 2014 des Arbeitskreises.

Jetzt ist sie fertig – und gelungen! Update 9. November! Vision 2014 091109

Um die Vision gut zu verstehen, muss man allerdings

• Wofür wir stehen
• Anamnese
• Diagnose
• Szenarion
• Contingency Plan

kennen, die in den Meeting Minutes auf den Seiten 14 bis 58 beschrieben sind