Günther Robol in Eco

Do, 27/10, 22.30 in orf2. Wozu wohl? Zu der „höchst befriedigenden“ Lösung (wie sagten Merkel und Sarkozy im Vorfeld: „sustainable and comprehensive“) der Euro Krise.

Zum Nachhören: http://tvthek.orf.at/programs/1346-Eco/episodes/3092059-Eco

Der im Robol Interview gezeigte Report der EU Troika, strictly confidential: 69868959-Troika-Report

EU Forges Greek Bond Deal

Date: 27-10-2011
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Private Investors to Take 50% Haircut; Firepower of Bailout Fund Increased.

BRUSSELS—European leaders said they secured a deal to reduce Greece’s debt after they labored overnight and into Thursday morning to find agreement on what they had billed as a blockbuster package to stem the Continent’s debt crisis.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy said after the marathon negotiating session that the leaders had reached agreement with private banks on a „voluntary“ 50% reduction of Greece’s debt in the hands of private investors.

He also said they had agreed to expand the firepower of the euro zone’s bailout vehicle, known as the European Financial Stability Facility, by four- or five-fold—suggesting it could provide guarantees for around €1 trillion, or about $1.4 trillion, of bonds issued by countries such as Spain and Italy.

Adventures in capitalism

Indian businesses are rewriting the rules of capitalism in a distinctive and unexpected way, says Patrick Foulis

Oct 22nd 2011 |Economist

ON AUGUST 1ST India’s finance minister, Pranab Mukherjee, gathered the country’s senior businesspeople for a pep-talk in New Delhi. The event (pictured) was notable for two reasons. First, the subject of discussion was the wobble in confidence that has taken place over the past year. Although a mini-industry has arisen of India optimists who predict that the country’s entrepreneurial spirit will make it an economic superpower over the next two decades, many business folk on the ground feel disillusioned. They worry that India’s notorious red tape, graft and lack of infrastructure are finally catching up with it. Largely unnoticed abroad and eclipsed by the rich world’s sovereign-debt crisis, the Indian economy has hit a sticky patch, with investment slowing, inflation high and growth expected to dip to perhaps 7%, from a peak of 10%. After two and a half hours, needless to say, the bosses emerged and expressed boundless optimism with the gruff air of men in the grip of a half-Nelson.

Don’t Just Bash the Bankers

Date: 26-10-2011
Source: SPIEGEL A Commentary by Thomas Tuma
Subject: ‘It’s Politics, Stupid!’

Enraged crowds have been gathering in New York and other cities around the world to protest against presumed bank misconduct. Many in politics have sought to profit from their anger. But blaming the financial industry misses the point. It is the politicians themselves who are to blame.

For all of our knee-jerk sympathy for the protesters that have recently been gathering on Wall Street as well as in cities like Frankfurt and Barcelona, it would be interesting to know whether they’re actually in favor of rescuing Greece or of booting it out of the euro zone. Likewise, are they fighting speculation and the power of the markets — or simply capitalism as such?

Nowotny warnt vor Bankenkrise

Unser anerkannter Nationalökonom hat wieder einmal den wahren Schuldigen sofort erkannt: Die Bankenkrise ist also eine Folge der Staatsschuldenkrise! Ich habe bis jetzt angenommen die Krise der öffentlichen Finanzen wurde und wird jetzt gerade wieder durch Banken ausgelöst bzw. verstärkt. Ist es also nicht gerade umgekehrt? (GR)

EZB-Ratsmitglied Ewald Nowotny hat vor einer neuen Bankenkrise als Folge der Staatsschuldenkrise gewarnt. „Die große Herausforderung, die sich für uns stellt, ist, dass sich aus dieser Krise der öffentlichen Finanzen nicht wieder eine negative Rückkoppelungsschleife ergibt – für eine Krise des Kreditsystems und eine Krise der Banken“, sagte Nowotny heute.

Das sei die konkrete Aufgabe für den Gipfel in Brüssel, erklärte er bei einem Vortrag an der Wirtschaftsuniversität Wien – seiner alten Wirkungsstätte als Professor.

Why We Can’t Spend Our Way Back To Normal

Date: 23-10-2011
Source: TIME By Juliet B. Schor

After a decade of reckless overconsumption, why is buying more stuff still expected to save the economy?

Schor is the author of several books including The Overworked American. Her latest book True Wealth was published in 2011.

Every month, one of the most anxiously anticipated pieces of economic information is the Commerce Department’s spending data. Are people in the malls? How deep are discounts? Spending is cheered; frugality causes concern. In the drama that is the U.S. economy, consumers have been cast as the hero, expected to provide the growth that avoids a double-dip recession and rebalances the labor market.

Bonjour Tristesse: France Stares into the Euro-Crisis Chasm

Date: 24-10-2011
Source: SPIEGEL

French productivity has plunged in recent years and economic output has stagnated. While the country possesses large firms like Alstom, which produces high speed trains for French rail, its mid-sized companies are not nearly as strong as in Germany.

Falling productivity, a stagnating economy and growing debt: France’s economic health leaves plenty of room for improvement. Markets have begun to notice and the country threatens to become mired in the ongoing European debt crisis.

When it comes to French economic competitiveness, Guy Maugis has a front row seat. The 58-year-old is president of the German-French Chamber of Commerce and head of Bosch France. Some 8,400 people work in the French subsidiary of the German electronics giant and Bosch France long enjoyed a cost advantage over its parent company. „But we’ve completely lost it in the last 10 years,“ says Maugis.

Maugis’ observations are reflected in the data as well: The French economy is losing its competitive edge. Productivity has declined dramatically and the balance of trade is chronically negative.

One Country, Two Revolutions

Date: 23-10-2011
Source: THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN, NYT

I take no pleasure in seeing anyone lose a job, but I can’t say that the recent headlines showing that America’s biggest banks have been losing money on their trading operations, and are having to radically shrink as a result, are entirely bad news for the country. Over the last decade, America’s banking sector got pumped up by steroids — in the form of cheap credit and leverage — every bit as much as Major League Baseball’s home run hitters.
And if one result of the downsizing of Wall Street is that more of America’s best and brightest math and physics students decide to go into science and real engineering rather than financial engineering, the country will be a whole lot better off.

Why? Because, to paraphrase the Columbia University economist Jagdish Bhagwati, Wall Street, which was originally designed to finance “creative destruction” (the creation of new industries and products to replace old ones), fell into the habit in the last decade of financing too much “destructive creation” (inventing leveraged financial products with no more societal value than betting on whether Lindy’s sold more cheesecake than strudel). When those products blew up, they almost took the whole economy with them.

Crunch Time for Franco-German Relations

Date: 24-10-2011
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Decisions taken over the coming week will define Europe’s destiny for generations.

For the past 60 years, the European Union in its various guises has helped to ensure peace and prosperity. Central to this project has been the relationship between France and Germany: the creation of the European Coal and Steel Community in 1956, which began this process of integration, was designed to bring to an end to nearly 100 years of Franco-German conflict that had seen Paris twice occupied by Germany and Germany brought to its knees by the Treaty of Versailles in the wake of World War I.

Now the euro crisis is putting new strain on the relationship. Unless France and Germany can find a way to resolve those differences over the next few days, both the euro and the European Union itself could start to unravel—a terrifying prospect.

Schuldentragfähigkeitsanalyse der Troika

von Querschuss am 22. Oktober 2011in Allgemein

Die Troika (IWF,EU und EZB) dokumentiert in einer “Schuldentragfähigkeitsanalyse” Griechenlands ihr komplettes Versagen in Punkto der bisherigen Strategie! In der Schuldentragfähigkeitsanalyse wird bereits eingangs festgestellt, dass bei der vierten Überprüfung der Situation in Griechenland durch die Troika, das Ergebnis, eine Wende zum Schlechteren genommen hat und die Wirtschaft zunehmend in die Rezession gerät und den staatlichen Behörden ein kräftiger Gegenwind bei der Erfüllung ihrer politischen Verpflichtungen entgegenweht. Für die Zwecke der Nachhaltigkeitsbewertung der Schulden Griechenlands wurde eine überarbeitete Baseline festgelegt unter Berücksichtigung der verschlechterten Wachstumsaussichten.

Nach dem neuen Baseline-Szenario ohne Schuldenschnitt, unter Berücksichtigung der schlechteren Wachstumsaussichten, beträgt der benötigte Finanzierungsbedarf für Griechenland nun 252 Mrd. Euro bis 2020. Bereits 2013 soll der Bruttostaatsschuldenstand 186% des nominalen BIPs erzielen und über das Jahr 2020 mit 152% langsam auf 130% im Jahr 2030 sinken.

Die Entwicklung des Bruttoschuldenstandes des Staates in Prozent des nominalen BIP, gemäß dem Baseline-Szenario der Troika.

Selbst dieses Szenario hat noch eine optimistische Grundlage, einen realen BIP-Einbruch für 2011 von -5,5% zum Vorjahr, es könnte jedoch noch schlimmer kommen, für 2012 ein Einbruch von noch -2,9% und für 2013 bereits ein Wachstum von +0,5%. Ab 2014 dann sogar jeweils ein Wachstum von über +2% bis ins Jahr 2020. Immer noch wenig Realismus enthält auch die “Korrektur” der avisierten Privatisierungserlöse im Baseline-Szenario auf noch 46 Mrd. Euro bis 2020.