Serious in Singapore

So viel zur Ernsthaftigkeit unserer Bildungsdebatte (hfk)

Date: 30-01-2011, NYT

  Source: THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN

I am in the Gan Eng Seng Primary School in a middle-class neighborhood of Singapore, and the principal, A. W. Ai Ling, has me visiting a fifth-grade science class. All the 11-year-old boys and girls are wearing junior white lab coats with their names on them. Outside in the hall, yellow police tape has blocked off a “crime scene” and lying on a floor, bloodied, is a fake body that has been murdered. The class is learning about DNA through the use of fingerprints, and their science teacher has turned the students into little C.S.I. detectives. They have to collect fingerprints from the scene and then break them down. 

I missed that DNA lesson when I was in fifth grade. When I asked the principal whether this was part of the national curriculum, she said no.

She just had a great science teacher, she said, and was aware that Singapore was making a big push to expand its biotech industries and thought it would be good to push her students in the same direction early. A couple of them checked my fingerprints. I was innocent — but impressed. 

This was just an average public school, but the principal had made her own connections between “what world am I living in,” “where is my country trying to go in that world” and, therefore, “what should I teach in fifth-grade science.”

A Chat with Nouriel Roubini and Daniel Speckhard, Former U.S. Ambassador to Greece, on the Future of the EZ

Joshua Glazer, Jan 26, 2011 3:17PM

With Greece expected to accept its third eurozone loan tranche (€6.5 billion) later this month, Daniel Speckhard, who served as U.S. ambassador to Greece until the summer of 2010, stopped by RGE’s New York headquarters for a spirited discussion with Nouriel Roubini and RGE analysts.  The conversation went straight to the heart of the matter and addressed the timing of a debt restructuring.  At this point it is a question of when, not if, and Roubini expects such a restructuring to materialize within the next two years given that even if Greece were to adhere to the program in full, a full debt repayment at the end of the program is not credible.  The earlier such a debt restructuring occurs, the greater the chances of avoiding an effective haircut in the face value of the debt.  But the political situation will determine when this happens, and right now it appears the relevant parties are buying time.

Davos Annual Meeting 2011 – What Is the New Economic Reality?

Thursday, January 27, 2011

What is the New Economic Reality? – Davos 2011 Video Link

http://www.weforum.org 26.01.2011
The notion of a „new normal“ is premature given the fragility of the global economy, but the elements of a new economic reality appear to now be in place.

In partnership with the World Economic Forum, Time magazine hosts this debate focusing on the elements of the new economic reality.

• Azim Premji, Chairman, Wipro, India
• Nouriel Roubini, Professor of Economics and International Business, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, New York University, USA; Global Agenda Council on Fiscal Crises
• Sir Martin Sorrell, Chief Executive Officer, WPP, United Kingdom
• James S. Turley, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Ernst & Young, USA
• Min Zhu, Special Adviser, International Monetary Fund (IMF), Washington DC; Member of the Foundation Board of the World Economic Forum; Regional Agenda Council on China

Moderated by
• Michael J. Elliott, Editor, Time International, and Deputy Managing Editor, Time Magazine, USA

Nouriel Roubini Interview on Economy

Thursday, January 27, 2011

(Bloomberg) — Nouriel Roubini, the New York University professor who in 2006 predicted the global financial crisis, talks about prospects for additional rounds of monetary stimulus by the Federal Reserve. Roubini, speaking with Tom Keene on Bloomberg Television’s „Surveillance Midday,“ also discusses the outlook for the U.S. economy, the dollar and the European sovereign-debt crisis. (Source: Bloomberg)http://nourielroubini.blogspot.com/2011/01/nouriel-roubini-interview-on-economy.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+NourielRoubiniBlog+%28Nouriel+Roubini+Blog%29

Die Ostbörsen sind Spitze!

Andreas Männicke, 29/1Die Börsen aus Osteuropa zählen wie schon im letzten Jahr zu den Top-Performern unter den Weltbörsen. Während im letzten Jahr die Börse Kiew (Ukraine) mit einem Plus von 117% und die Börse OMX Tallinn (Estland ) mit einem Plus von 80% herausragten , aber auch die Börsen aus Russland (Moskau) und Polen (Warschau) mit jeweils über 20% den DAX klar outperformen konnten, rücken jetzt auch weitere „Exotenbörsen“ aus Osteuropa in den Vordergrund des Anlegerinteresses. So hatten die Börsen aus Serbien (bis 25. Januar) mit einem Plus von 13%, Rumänien (+9,6%), Estland (+8,4%), Kroatien (+8,0%), Lettland (+7,3%), Ukraine (+7,1%), Ungarn (+6,9%), Russland (+5,7%) und sogar aus Bulgarien (+5,4%) alle einen Super-Start in diesem Jahr. Damit befinden sich in den ersten 3 Handelswochen des neuen Jahres schon jetzt auffallend viele Ostbörsen auf den Spitzenplätzen der Weltbörsen-Performance-Rangliste. Im monatlich erscheinden Börsenbrief EAST STOCK TRENDS (www.eaststock.de) wird regelmäßig auch auf diese „Exotenbörsen“ aus Osteuropa eingegangen. Dabei scheinen jetzt auch die Ostbörsen aus Südosteuropa ebenso wie die Börsen der Problemländer aus Südeuropa bei den Anlegern wieder mehr Vertrauen zu gewinnen, dass in diesem Jahr die Haushaltsbilanzdefizite im Zaum gehalten werden. Damit könnten die Verlierer des vergangenen Jahres in diesem Jahr zu den Gewinnern der Zukunft zählen – wie es so oft bei Emerging Markets der Fall ist. So stiegen in diesem Jahr auch die Indices der Börsen aus Spanien (+10,2%) aus Griechenland (+9,7%) und aus Italien (+9,7%).Sogar die Börse aus Island konnte um 6,8% zulegen. In Afrika überzeugte zudem Nigeria mit einem Plus von 11% und in Asien Vietnam mit einem Plus von 7,2%. Ich halte diese Länder auch in Zukunft für aussichtsreich.

Neueste Meeting Minutes

nach dem gestrigen Meeting, 28/1. Neu: Seite 100, 101.

Föhrenberg-Kreis Financial Economy III 11-01-28

Gefahren der Regulierung: Das Schattenreich der Finanzindustrie

Handelsblatt.com, 28/1

Ich bin ganz gerührt: das kann ja wohl nur heissen, dass es vor der Regulierung nicht so war! Zur Illustration: Bilanzsummer der österr. Banken: 1 Bio €. Off Balance Sheet: 2-3 Bio €, und das vor der Regulierung (welche Regulierung, übrigens?) hfk

Die staatliche Regulierung der Banken treibt Billionen von Dollar in dunkle Kanäle des Weltfinanzsstems – in Hedge-Fonds, Private-Equity-Firmen oder Zweckgesellschaften. Jetzt schlägt sogar Deutsche-Bank-Chef Josef Ackermann Alarm.

von R. Benders, R. Landgraf, T. Riecke und M. Maisch

Deutsche-Bank-Chef Ackermann: Selbst Banker warnen vor unregulierten Bereichen. Quelle: dapd

NEW YORK/FRANKFURT/DAVOS. Noch nie waren sich die Repräsentanten der wichtigsten 20 Industrie- und Schwellenländer so einig. Am 2. April 2009 feierte die G20 in London den „Durchbruch“ im Kampf gegen die Ursache der Finanzkrise. „Kein Produkt und kein Akteur des Finanzmarkts soll künftig mehr unreguliert oder unbeaufsichtigt sein“, hieß es im Abschlusskommuniqué des Gipfeltreffens.

Die dramatischen Folgen der Krise hatten die Politiker zusammengeschweißt. In London steckten sie den Rahmen für die Neuordnung der Finanzwelt ab. Den Ankündigungen folgten Taten: Die Banken müssen künftig mehr Eigenkapital einbehalten und einen größeren Teil von Verbriefungen – also Krediten, die in Wertpapiere verpackt wurden – in den eigenen Büchern halten. In den USA sind den Banken beim risikoreichen Eigenhandel mit Wertpapieren überdies enge Grenzen gesetzt.

Financial Crisis Was Avoidable, Inquiry Finds

January 25, 2011, NYT

By SEWELL CHAN

WASHINGTON — The 2008 financial crisis was an “avoidable” disaster caused by widespread failures in government regulation, corporate mismanagement and heedless risk-taking by Wall Street, according to the conclusions of a federal inquiry.

The commission that investigated the crisis casts a wide net of blame, faulting two administrations, the Federal Reserve and other regulators for permitting a calamitous concoction: shoddy mortgage lending, the excessive packaging and sale of loans to investors and risky bets on securities backed by the loans.

“The greatest tragedy would be to accept the refrain that no one could have seen this coming and thus nothing could have been done,” the panel wrote in the report’s conclusions, which were read by The New York Times. “If we accept this notion, it will happen again.”

While the panel, the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission, accuses several financial institutions of greed, ineptitude or both, some of its gravest conclusions concern government failings, with embarrassing implications for both parties. But the panel was itself divided along partisan lines, which could blunt the impact of its findings.

Moody’s to Factor Pension Gaps in States’ Ratings

Na, bei uns im Business nennt man das „Discounted Cash Flow“. Oder kluge Ökonomen (z.B. Larry Kotlikoff) nennen es „Fiscal Gap“. (hfk)

January 27, 2011, NYT

By MARY WILLIAMS WALSH

Moody’s Investors Service has begun to recalculate the states’ debt burdens in a way that includes unfunded pensions, something states and others have ardently resisted until now.

States do not now show their pension obligations — funded or not — on their audited financial statements. The board that issues accounting rules does not require them to. And while it has been working on possible changes to the pension accounting rules, investors have grown increasingly nervous about municipal bonds.

The “working rich” and the rest of us

Date: 27-01-2011
 Source: Reuters

‘‘The next 10 years is going to be the most exciting time in our lives!’’ said Tejpreet Singh Chopra, an Indian entrepreneur. ‘‘The Indian economy will double! It will be incredible!’’

It was hot and humid  —  typical spring weather in Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania. It was also late  —  close to midnight. But the enthusiastic Mr. Chopra, dressed in a still-crisp light  shirt with blue and white stripes, navy trousers and blue turban, was on his way to yet another meeting.

Mr. Chopra was in East Africa last May as one of the World Economic Forum’s Young Global Leaders, a sort of farm team for the full-grown global business elite that gathers every January in Davos.

As that meeting of the World Economic Forum begins, Mr. Chopra, 41, is among the 2,500 participants.

And intentionally or not, Davos will focus attention on one of the most striking consequences of the most recent technological revolution and the spread of globalization that has transformed the world economy in the past 30 years or so: the emergence of an international economic elite whose globe-trotting members have largely pulled away from their compatriots.

The trend is particularly stark in the United States, where from 1980 to 2005 more than 80 percent of the total increase in income went to the top 1 percent of the population. The gap there between the superrich and everybody else is now greater than at any time since before the Depression of the 1930s.