Staatshaushalte: Tappt nun auch Osteuropa in Schuldenfalle?

Handelsblatt.com, 30/10

Noch halten fast alle EU-Mitglieder im Osten die Maastricht-Kriterien ein, doch die Schulden steigen rasant. Immerhin erwarten Experten jetzt mehr Wirtschaftswachstum. Wie es um die Staatskassen von Polen, Bulgarien und Co. steht.

von Mathias Brüggmann

Schuldenuhr in Warschau: Auch in Osteuropa steigen die Staatsschulden rasant. Quelle: Reuters

BERLIN. Rot rennen die Zahlen der Warschauer Schuldenuhr. Sekündlich steigt Polens Staatsschuld so für jeden sichtbar. Vor kurzem hat Leszek Balcerowicz, der als Finanzminister der ersten postkommunistischen Regierung im Ostblock 1989 zum Vater der Marktwirtschaft in Polen wurde, die Schuldenuhr eigenmächtig installiert. Der Radikalliberale protestiert so gegen eine immer höhere Staatsverschuldung.

Staatsschuld mehr als verdoppelt

Trotz des Wirtschaftswachstums sogar im Krisenjahr 2009 wächst Polens Schuldenberg immer rasanter: Für dieses Jahr rechnet Finanzminister Jacek Rostowski sogar mit einem Haushaltsdefizit von 7,9 Prozent des Bruttoinlandsprodukts (BIP). 2011 kann Polens Schatzmeister auch kaum sparen – denn dann kommt inmitten der ersten polnischen EU-Ratspräsidentschaft die Parlamentswahl. Und so robbt die Staatsverschuldung dicht an die Maastricht-Grenze von 60 Prozent heran.

Be Careful What You Wish For

by John Mauldin October 29, 2010

In this issue: It’s Softer Than It Looks Not Finer for the „99er“ Be Careful What You Wish For

People only accept change when they are faced with necessity, and only recognize necessity when a crisis is upon them.. - Jean Monnet, father of the European Union This week we turn our attention to the elections and their aftermath. Long-time readers know I am a Republican, but I offer some sobering advice to my friends on my side of the aisle: Be careful what you wish for. It’s one thing to get a few votes. It’s quite another to live up to promises that simply can’t be kept. We will start our analysis by looking at the GDP numbers that came out today, and we will end by pointing out that there will be no easy choices.   It’s Softer Than It Looks The GDP number came in at a rather soft 2% growth, up slightly from last quarter’s 1.7%. From the standpoint of creating new jobs, 2% just doesn’t cut it. We need about 100,000-125,000 new jobs a month just to keep up with population growth, and a 2% GDP will not give us half that, as we saw last quarter. Most economists say you need about 3.5% GDP growth to get solid job reports.

Stabilitätspakt (sch)adé

Andreas Männike, 30/10

Der von Angela Merkel erhoffte Stabilitätspakt, wonach Defizitsünder mit Stimmentzug bestraft werden können, kam zwar in Brüssel beim EU-Gipfel erwartungsgemäß nicht zustande, wohl aber ein modifizierter EU-Vertrag und die Bereitschaft aller Länder, den Euro durch Haushaltsdisziplin in Zukunft zu stärken und für Spekulanten weniger angreifbar zu machen. Ein permanenter Krisenmechanismus soll nun die Zahlungsunfähigkeit von Ländern verhindern; es soll aber bei den Rettungsmaßnahmen auch die Privatwirtschaft mit ins Boot genommen werden, was auch schon vorher hätte geschehen sollen. Zudem sollen systemrelevante Finanzinstitutionen von nicht systemrelevanten getrennt werden, was schwierig sein wird. Es ist ohnehin notwendig, die Eigenkapitalbasis von Banken und Versicherungen nach Basel III und Solvenz II zu stärken. Die Allianz und Munic Re gehören wohl zu den systemrelevanten Unternehmen, die Commerzbank aber nicht?

A presidency heading for a fiscal train wreck

By Nouriel Roubini

FT.com, Published: October 28 2010 20:48 | Last updated: October 28 2010 20:48

What has been the fiscal performance of President Barack Obama? He inherited the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression, as well as a budget deficit that – after much needed bail-outs and a series of reckless tax cuts – was already close to $1,000bn. His stimulus package, together with a backstop of the financial system, low rates and quantitative easing from the Federal Reserve, prevented another depression. Mr Obama also deserves credit that the US, alone among advanced economies, currently supports a “growth now”, rather than an “austerity now” path.

But this is but one half of the picture; we must also judge his first two years on his ability to anticipate what the economy will need tomorrow. Here the picture is much less positive. Given the likely path of fiscal policy after next Tuesday’s election – with the expiration of existing stimulus and transfer payments, and even with most of the 2001-03 tax cuts being kept – the US economy will soon experience serious fiscal drag just when it needs a further boost. Problematically, the administration’s failures leave it relying on the Fed, which is bent on further QE, likely to be announced next Wednesday. But studies show this will have little effect on US growth in 2011, so fiscal policy should be doing some of the lifting to prevent a double dip recession.

D Arbeitsmarkt-Trendwende: Jobmotor Zeitarbeit

Handelsblatt, 29-10.

Die Arbeitslosigkeit sinkt rapide, jetzt ist sie unter die Drei-Millionen-Marke gesunken. Vor allem die Zeitarbeit und Sozialberufe boomen. Damit konkurrieren die Unternehmen auch stärker um qualifiziertes Personal. Wie sich der Arbeitsmarkt entwickelt, und wie sich das auf die Wirtschaft auswirkt.

von Axel Schrinner

Frank-Jürgen Weise: Der Chef der Bundesagentur für Arbeit hat niedrige Arbeitslosenzahlen bekannt gegeben. Quelle: ap

DÜSSELDORF. Mit sinkender Arbeitslosigkeit wachsen die Probleme der Wirtschaft, qualifiziertes Personal zu finden. Inzwischen klagen schon 27 Prozent der mittelständischen Unternehmen über Fachkräftemangel, heißt es in einer DZ-Bank-Studie. Große Unternehmen seien weit stärker betroffen als kleinere. Der Fachkräftemangel ziehe sich durch alle Branchen; am schlimmsten sei die Lage in der Metall- und Elektroindustrie und auf dem Bau. Insgesamt sei die Lage deutlich prekärer als vor fünf Jahren, so die Studie.

Dependence on China: The indispensable economy?

   Date: 29-10-2010
 Source: The Economist

 China may not matter quite as much as you think

THE town of Alpha in Queensland, Australia, has only 400 residents, including one part-time ambulance driver and a lone policeman, according to Mark Imber of Waratah Coal, an exploration firm. But over the next few years it should quintuple in size, thanks to an A$7.5 billion ($7.3 billion) investment by his company and the Metallurgical Corporation of China, a state-owned firm that serves China’s mining and metals industry. This will build Australia’s biggest coal mine, as well as a 490km (300-mile) railway to carry the black stuff to the coast, and thence to China’s ravenous industrial maw.

It is hard to exaggerate the Chinese economy’s far-reaching impact on the world, from small towns to big markets. It accounted for about 46% of global coal consumption in 2009, according to the World Coal Institute, an industry body, and consumes a similar share of the world’s zinc and aluminium. In 2009 it got through twice as much crude steel as the European Union, America and Japan combined. It bought more cars than America last year and this year looks set to buy more mobile phones than the rest of the world put together, according to China First Capital, an investment bank.

In China growth of 9.6% (recorded in the year to the third quarter) represents a slowdown. China will account for almost a fifth of world growth this year, according to the IMF; at purchasing-power parity, it will account for just over a quarter.
For the first 25 years of its rise, China’s influence was most visible on the bottom line of corporate results, as it allowed firms to cut costs. More recently it has become conspicuous on the top line. Audi, a luxury German carmaker, sold more cars in China (including Hong Kong) than at home in the first quarter. Komatsu of Japan has just won an order for 44 “super-large dump trucks” from China’s biggest coal miner.

India Deal Puts China in GE’s League

   Date: 29-10-2010
 Source: The Wall Street Journal

China is breaking into the top ranks of global power-equipment exporters with a $10 billion deal signed with India on Thursday.

By nabbing the deal with India, which is on an infrastructure spending spree, China poses a new competitive threat to established suppliers of technology such as General Electric Co., Siemens AG and Alstom SA.China’s new position is also evidence of a growing trend of emerging markets doing business among themselves, after years of focusing on trade with partners in developed nations.

End of Coordination?

Marcus Svedberg

Oct 25, 2010 12:40PM

We argued last month that Eastern European equity markets to a large extent are driven by the global development but that it is difficult to find a clear trend for the world economy, which causes a lot of uncertainty on the financial markets. This is still the case, but one important implication of the diverging trends is that the strongly coordinated global economic policy action that we have got used to during the past two years is losing momentum. The G20 meeting in April 2009 was probably the high point, but the EU/IMF bailout package this spring was also an important achievement, although it may be argued that it came too late. It is not that there is no need for coordination on important issues or a lack of proposals, but the political will is arguably not as strong today as it used to be. The issues are more complex though, and the sense of urgency has decreased. The talks of a currency war – the debate about the strength of currencies that has intensified lately – is worrying, and the main players seem more inclined to blame one another than find solutions. In particular, the focus is on China and the need to revalue the yuan, a discussion that so far has yielded little progress.

Dodd-Frank Rulemaking: The Bottom Line Impact

Thomas L. Fraser

Oct 27, 2010 5:15PM

With the passage of the 2,300 page Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, the framework has been put in place for the most far-reaching reform of the U.S. financial system since the Great Depression.  But the significant reform work is just beginning.  Dodd-Frank delegates to federal regulators tremendous discretion with respect to how the new law will be interpreted and implemented.  Dodd-Frank requires eleven federal regulatory agencies to conduct an estimated 243 new rulemakings and 67 studies over the next year or more.  The effectiveness of Dodd-Frank and its bottom line impact on specific segments of the financial industry will be determined largely by the results of the new rulemakings.

It Isn’t Easy Being Green

Michael Pettis

Oct 26, 2010 12:12PM

The seemingly imminent and inexorable rise of the renminbi as a major, even dominant, reserve and trading currency, has been almost as widely heralded as the equivalent rise of the Japanese yen just twenty years ago. Even my normally skeptical friend Nouriel Roubini seems to think so.