Standard & Poor’s: Ratings – keine Wissenschaft, nur Meinungen

Handelsblatt.online, 31/7

Wer dachte, Ratings würden verlässliche Aussagen über die Bonität von Anleihen oder Banken machen, der liegt offenbar falsch – zumindest nach Ansicht des Deutschland-Chefs der Agentur Standard & Poor’s. Nur um eine Meinung gehe es, erklärt er in einem Interview, nicht um exakte Wissenschaft. Dass man da mal danebenliege, dafür könne man sich nicht haftbar machen lassen.

Die Logos der drei Großen: „Fitch“, „Standard & Poor’s“ und „Moody’s“. Quelle: dpa

HB FRANKFURT. „Ratings sind nicht richtig oder falsch. Sie sind in ihrer Gesamtheit konsistent angewandt oder nicht„, sagte Deutschlandchef Torsten Hinrichs in einem Gespräch mit der Deutschen Presse-Agentur in Frankfurt. „Ratings sind eine Meinung zu zukünftigen Ereignissen. Dass diese Meinung relativ treffsicher ist, weisen wir in Studien nach. Ob diese Meinungen in fünf Jahren zutreffen oder nicht, kann nach unserer Ansicht keine Haftungsgrundlage sein.“

Playing by Berlin’s Rules in an Aging Europe

Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, Peterson Institute

Jul 23, 2010 8:46PM

This week Ireland became the latest “eurozone peripheral economy” to see its sovereign credit rating downgraded by the credit rating agencies. This follows similar earlier downgrades of Portugal, Spain, and of course Greece. But this downgrading trend is actually good news for the European economy as a whole and truly excellent news for Germany. When money is tight—as it will be in Europe for the foreseeable future—the credit provider (Germany in this case) is strengthened. Its leadership role in Europe is becoming entrenched.

Do the Latest European Bank Lending Numbers Reveal a Major Headache Looming For the ECB?

Edward Hugh

Jul 30, 2010 12:09PM

According to Ralph Atkins, writing in the Financial Times:

„Eurozone mortgage borrowing grew last month at the fastest pace in almost two years in a sign that bank lending across the 16-country region may be flickering back to life. Lending for house purchases rose at an annual rate of 3.4 per cent in June – the fastest since September 2008, according to European Central Bank data published on Tuesday. The acceleration pointed to a revival in consumer confidence and an increased willingness by banks to fuel the economic recovery with loans to the private sector.“ 

We’re Number One!

July 28, 2010, 8:28 pm. Paul Krugman, NYT Blog 

<!– — Updated: 8:28 pm –>I’ve seen a peculiar meme surfacing here and there lately — the assertion that people like me are exaggerating how bad our current difficulties are, that things were actually worse in the 70s and 80s. I wonder where that’s coming from — and I really do; it has the feel of one of those things being disseminated on talk radio or something, and I think I hear a faint chant of Jimmy Carter! Jimmy Carter! in the background.

Whatever. The truth is that this really is the big one. Catherine Rampell recently updated the recession comparison chart, showing declines in employment. Here’s the percentage decline in employment in recessions since 1970:

We’re really number one, by that standard.

Speculators Rediscover Agricultural Commodities

   Date: 29-07-2010
 Source: SPIEGEL

With the financial crisis fading into the past, speculation on agricultural commodities markets has returned in force. Food prices are climbing once again as hedge funds rediscover the immense profits that can be made — led by a British chocolate baron.

Even by the standards of London’s exclusive Mayfair neighborhood, businessman Anthony Ward leads a luxurious lifestyle. He and his family live in a 500-square-meter (5,380-square-foot) townhouse with five bedrooms, each with its own bath. There are separate quarters for the staff. When Ward opens a bottle of wine on his veranda in the evening, it’s likely that it comes from his own vineyard at the foot of Paardeberg Mountain near Cape Town.

Ward’s fabulous wealth comes as a result of his involvement in the cocoa business. The 50-year-old Briton with the nickname „Choc Finger“ heads Armajaro, a commodities business and hedge fund he co-founded in 1998. In recent weeks, the hedge fund has caused a furor in the commodities markets. Traders report that Ward has purchased a vast number of futures contracts for the delivery of 241,000 tons of cocoa worth $1 billion (€770 million).

The Great Decoupling of Corporate Profits from Jobs

Robert Reich

Gestern, 27. Juli 2010, 01:20:00

Second-quarter earnings reports are coming in, and they’re making Wall Street smile. Corporate profits are up. And big American companies are sitting on a gigantic pile of money. The 500 largest non-financial firms held almost a trillion dollars in the second quarter, and that money pile is growing larger this quarter.  Profits that plummeted in the recession have bounced back. Big businesses have recovered almost 90 percent of what they lost.

So with all this money and profit, they’ll start hiring again, right? Wrong – for three reasons.

First, lots of their profits are coming from their overseas operations. So that’s where the

Budget Cuts in Europe: Meet the “Virtuosi” and the “Laggards”

Paolo Manasse

Jul 28, 2010 10:43AM

Who are the Laggards and who the Virtuosi in the current wave of budget cuts in Europe? What lesson can we draw from the evidence? How should we assess the distribution of budget cuts among European countries? Many observers  have focused  on  country specific issues such as  debt sustainability,  see for example the recent IMF Fiscal Monitor 2010, or on  the likely effects of budgets cut on the recovery. The issue of the European distribution of cuts , however,  has not been addressed. This is hardly surprising:  unlike in the US, there is no European federal budget,  and the  Growth and Stability pact has nothing to say on the distribution of the burden of adjustment among member countries.  Yet as Europe gets more and more integrated and fiscal policy increasingly centralized, these questions are poised to become more relevant. 

Roubini: EU Stress Tests Criteria Not Realistic

Published: Monday, 26 Jul 2010 | 8:03 AM ET

By: Antonia Oprita
Web Producer, CNBC.com

The pan-European stress tests on the banking sector were not tough enough to reflect future worsening conditions for the continent’s economy, Nouriel Roubini, economist and chairman of Roubini Global Economics, told CNBC Monday.

Photo: Oliver Quillia for CNBC Nouriel Roubini

European stress tests assumed a rise of 6 percent in unemployment, economic contraction of 3 percent on average and a 6 percent hike in market interest rates. Many analysts said the conditions were harsher than what they had anticipated.

„The assumptions made about economic growth, about sovereign risk are not realistic enough,“ said. Roubini, who was dubbed by the media „Dr. Doom“ but prefers to be called „Dr. Realist.“

Plus, most of the sovereign risk was held in maturity books and the tests did not allow for a default, he added.

The results of the tests are detailed enough for investors to work out for themselves losses that banks might incur in case of sovereign defaults if they wish, the head of the Committee of European Banking Supervisors Giovanni Carosio told CNBC Friday.

Hütet euch vor jubelnden Banken

27. Juli 2010, 18:50. Sogar einmal ein luzider Kommentar zum thema aus dem Standard:

Neue Eigenkapitalregeln können später kommen, dürfen aber nicht milder werden

Seit Ausbruch der großen Finanzkrise standen Regierungen und Aufsichtsbehörden in aller Welt vor einem Dilemma: Wie kann man die Banken an eine kürzere Leine nehmen und zukünftige Krisen vermeiden, ohne die Kreditvergabe und damit das Wirtschaftswachstum abzuwürgen?

Die Hauptlast haben dabei die Notenbanken zu tragen, die im Baseler Ausschuss die weltweiten Auflagen für Kreditinstitute beschließen. Denn der beste Weg, um Banken vor einem Kollaps zu schützen, der sie wieder von Staatshilfe abhängig macht, ist es, sie zur Bildung ausreichender Reserven zu zwingen.

Es gibt zu viele Banker

von KrisenFrey  |  21. Juli 2010, 12:21. Blog von Eric Frey, Standard http://derstandard.at/r1254311932830/Blog-Krisenfrey

Am vergangenen Wochenende hat Bank-Austria-Chef Willibald Cernko vor einem massiven Jobabbau im österreichischen Bankensektor gewarnt und damit Stimmung gegen die verschiedenen neuen Belastungen und Auflagen für die Kreditinstitute gemacht.

Die Studie der Bank Austria, wonach wegen Bankenabgabe und höheren Eigenkapitalquoten  in der Branche 5000 bis 10.000 Arbeitsplätze, also rund 10 Prozent der Belegschaft,  verloren gehen könnten, ist sicherlich seriös und ernst zu nehmen. Für die Betroffenen wäre dies eine schlimme Sache. Aber für die Allgemeinheit ist ein Schrumpfprozess des Finanzsektors kein Verlust – im Gegenteil.