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Archive for 21. März 2010

The Threat to Muddle Through

Posted by hkarner - 21. März 2010

by John Mauldin
March 20, 2010
 
 

If the Chinese allowed the renminbi to rise, would that make the USA better off? That is the contention of a cabal of critics from Senators to Nobel laureates. Paul Krugman wants to see a 25% tariff on Chinese goods. Today we examine that idea, and look at the real problems that we face. If only it were so easy. The numbers just don’t add up. The fault, dear Brutus…

The Threat to Muddle Through

I have pretty well laid out over the past decade that I think the US will Muddle Through what promises to be a period of below-trend growth and a long-term secular bear market. It will not be pleasant or fun – there will be a lot of pain – but we will get through the coming crisis (note: I think the Big One is still in our future). That is what we do in a more or less free-market world. But, as I wrote 7 years ago and have written since, there is one caveat that turns me from a Muddle Through-er into a real doom and gloom type, and that is the threat of protectionism and trade wars. As in Smoot-Hawley, which made the Depression into something much worse than it should have been.

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