3. Stellungnahme des Föhrenbergkreises AK Finanzwirtschaft zur Hypo-Alpe-Adria Verstaatlichung – WIE ES HÄTTE GEHEN KÖNNEN!

unsere ersten zwei Stellungnahmen zur Verstaatlichung der HAAG haben großen Widerhall und Zustimmung gefunden. Nur aus der Politik und Bankenwelt (no na!) gab es zwiespältige Aussagen:

• „absolut korrekt als Checkliste für Best-Practice“
• Aber leider gab es keine Alternative zur Verstaatlichung.

 Deswegen unsere 3. Stellungnahme, mit der wir darzustellen versuchen

• Warum die Annahme des „alternativlosen Szenarios durch den Staat“ nicht stimmt
• Wie man es hätte besser lösen können.

WIE ES HÄTTE GEHEN KÖNNEN!

Grundprinzip:

o Die Allgemeinheit der Steuerzahler darf nicht zur Sicherung von Einkommen und Vermögen von Bankaktionären, Managern und Gläubigern (mit Ausnahme der zu sichernden Einlagen) herangezogen werden.

o Dies ist mit den gesetzlich vorgesehenen Maßnahmen sicherzustellen. Nur falls diese nicht ausreichen, ist eine Verstaatlichung auf Zeit zur Durchsetzung obigen Prinzips vorzusehen.

Who Should be Bailed Out?

Lucian Bebchuk, Dec 21, 2009 6:21PM

From Project Syndicate:

As governments around the world develop policies to deal with failing financial institutions, they should be sure to pick their beneficiaries wisely. In particular, they should study and avoid the mistakes made in the AIG bailout in late 2008.

A United States Special Inspector General recently issued a report criticizing the US government for failing to insist that AIG’s counterparties in the market for financial derivatives bear some of the costs of bailing out the company. Indeed, bailouts of failed institutions should never extend the government’s safety net to such counterparties.

A New Normal for Eastern Europe

Marcus Svedberg, Dec 21, 2009 12:13PM

Most countries in Eastern Europe recorded almost unprecedented economic contraction and market recoveries while celebrating the twenty year anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall. It may therefore seem a little far-fetched to argue that Eastern Europe is normalising at the end of one of the most extraordinary years since the transition process started. But there are some notable signs that the region is not only recovering but is about to enter a period of more normal development. The main feature of this new normal is growth in line with potential – rather than over potential – that is not based on low base effect or cheap credit but rather on low inflation, low positive real interest rates and political stability. Most countries in the region are still in recovery mode and will remain so during the first half of 2010, before entering this new normal in the second half of the year. There is, however, a wide spread in the region, and for some of the worst-hit economies in the region, such as the Baltic states, the recovery period will be longer.

In Regulation We Trust?

Robert Skidelsky, Project Syndicate.

 

LONDON – From next year, on swearing allegiance to the Queen, all members of Britain’s House of Lords – and I am one of them – will be required to sign a written commitment to honesty and integrity. Unexceptionable principles, one might say. But, until recently, it was assumed that persons appointed to advise the sovereign were already of sufficient honesty and integrity to do so. They were assumed to be recruited from groups with internalized codes of honor.

The Age of Deleveraging

aus John Mauldin’s weekly e-letter

This is the season when pundits feel compelled to make annual forecasts. I will make mine, as I traditionally do, in the first letter of January. But already we have seen a wide range of forecasted outcomes. Are we going to grow at 5-6% or at 1-2% or dip back into recession? Why such disparity? I think part of the reason is a basic disagreement on the nature of the just-lapsed recession. Today we explore that issue. Then I point you to a way to help those who are desperately in need and only wish they had our problems. For those interested, I enclose a picture of my new granddaughter.

And finally, I start the process of getting ready, after ten years, to actually buy some stocks. Yes, it is true. Am I throwing in the towel and becoming a bull, or do I just see an opportunity? Stay tuned.

It’s All About Deleveraging

I did a very interesting one-hour show this week with Tom Ashbrook on his National Public Radio syndicated radio show called On Point. About 20 minutes into the show, Professor Jeremy Siegel of Wharton came on, and we had a pleasant debate and lively Q and A with listeners. Jeremy of course was the bull, expecting that next year the US will grow by 5-6%. I was the „bear,“ expecting growth in the 1-2% range. You can listen in at http://www.onpointradio.org/2009/12/an-economic-warning. It’s also available as a podcast on iTunes („On Point with Tom Ashbrook“) for a few more days.

EZB Financial Stability Review

PRESS RELEASE

18 December 2009 – Financial Stability Review December 2009

„The results show that euro area banks could face cumulative total losses of EUR 198 billion on their exposures to securities and losses of EUR 355 billion on their loan book exposures over the period 2007-2010. The total potential write-downs on securities and loans is thus currently estimated at EUR 553 billion over the same period. This figure is EUR 65 billion higher than the June 2009 estimate.“ Lucas Papademos, Vice President of the ECB

The extraordinary remedial actions taken by central banks and governments since late last year have been successful in restoring confidence in, and improving the resilience of, financial systems around the world. Financial system support measures have been addressing the funding challenges of key financial institutions and have bolstered their capital positions. These measures, together with sizeable macroeconomic policy stimuli, set in motion a mutually reinforcing process between financial system conditions and real economic performance, fostering improving business cycle prospects, as well as a fading of systemic risk.

Kleine Zeitung übernimmt die APA-Meldung über Föhrenbergkreis Stellungnahme zur Hypo

http://www.kleinezeitung.at/nachrichten/wirtschaft/hypo/2239595/foehrenbergkreis-uebernahme-staat-schwerer-fehler.story. Man beachte dazu auch den Kommentar.

Das Wirtschaftsblatt hat die Meldung auch übernommen. http://www.wirtschaftsblatt.at/home/oesterreich/branchen/401906/index.do

Und „Österreich“ meldet sich - ??? – auch zu Wort. http://www.oe24.at/money/Wirtschaft_geld/Foehrenbergkreis-uneins-ueber-Hypo-Verstaatlichung-0600774.ece

Drug Money Saved Banks in Global Crisis?

Yves Smith, Dec 13, 2009 9:57PM

Wow, so it wasn’t Turbo Timmy, the AIG rescue, the alphabet soup of Fed currency facilities or the currency swaps that saved the global banking system. The marginal suppliers of capital, according to the UN, were drug lords. That means that the UN is saying that the banks went into the money-laundering business on a much greater scale than before as a matter of survival. I would presume if this is accurate, it would also mean terrorist groups were able to more more money through the banking system.

We Face a Real Challenge in Dealing with that Feeling that the Crisis is Over

Mark Thoma, Dec 13, 2009 8:58PM

Paul Volcker is interviewed:  

Interview with Paul Volcker, by Gabor Steingart, Spiegel: …Spiegel: …[E]ven though there are still more people being fired than hired,… Ben Bernanke is saying that the recession is technically over. Do you agree with him?

Volcker: …We had a quarter of increased growth but I don’t think we are out of the woods. … The recovery is quite slow and I expect it to continue to be pretty slow and restrained for a variety of reasons and the possibility of a relapse can’t be entirely discounted. … We have not yet achieved self-reinforcing recovery. We are heavily dependent upon government support so far…, both in the financial markets and in the economy. …

Bank Collapse in Austria Brings Debt in Eastern Europe Center Stage

Edward Harrison. Credit Writedowns

Dec 15, 2009 6:49PM

In the links yesterday, I pointed to an FT article detailing the Austrian government’s nationalization of the insolvent bank Hypo Group Alpe Adria (HGAA). The financial institution, which has 40 billion Euros in assets, is the country’s sixth largest bank. But, in relative terms, this is a very large bankruptcy – using GDP at purchasing power parity, an American HGAA would have assets of $2.5 trillion, larger than any of the American banks. So, this is a very big deal and it points to renewed risks in banking and the possibility of contagion.