Meeting Minutes Arbeitskreis Finanzwirtschaft

Hier finden sie immer den letzten Stand (tw. „Work in Progress“) der Arbeiten des Arbeitskreises FinEco III_26-10-2009

Contingency-Plan Sozialkapital:

 Welche Maßnahmen sind zu setzen, um den worst case im geschilderten Sozialkapital-Szenario zu verhindern und die ebenfalls aufgezeigte Chance für einen Wandel zu unterstützen?

Konkret: wie kann ein Crash des Sozialkapitals (Sozialkapital = gesellschaftliche Solidarität, aber auch die Fähigkeit einer Gesellschaft, friedlich und zukunftsorientiert zu kooperieren) vermieden werden?

Siehe hierzu den Zwischenstand der Arbeiten des Arbeitskreises Finanzwirtschaft, zusammengefasst von Klaus Gabriel: 20090929_Contingency Plan Sozialkapital

Too Big to Fail: Why The Big Banks Should Be Broken Up, But Why The White House and Congress Don’t Want To

25. Oktober 2009, 16:49:35 |(Robert Reich)

And now there are five — five Wall Street behemoths, bigger than they were before the Great Meltdown, paying fatter salaries and bonuses to retain their so-called“talent,“ and raking in huge profits. The biggest difference between now and last October is these biggies didn’t know then that they were too big to fail and the government would bail them out if they got into trouble. Now they do. And like a giant, gawking adolescent who’s just discovered he can crash the Lexus convertible his rich dad gave him and the next morning have a new one waiting in his driveway courtesy of a dad who can’t say no, the biggies will drive even faster now, taking even bigger risks. What to do? Two ideas are floating around Washington, but only one is supported by the Treasury and the White House. Unfortunately, it’s the wrong one.

The Best of Times

from John Mauldin’s weekly newsletter:

What’s a Fed to do? We get talk about tightening and taking away the easy credit, but we got the fourth largest monetization on record last week. This week we examine the elements of deflation, look at some banking statistics that are not optimistic, and then I write a reply to my great friend Bill Bonner about why it’s the best of times to be young. I think you will get a few thought-provoking ideas here and there.

The Elements of Deflation

I get asked at almost every venue where I stop, whether I think we will see inflation, or deflation. And I answer, „Yes.“ And I am not trying to be funny. I think the primary forces in the developed world now are deflationary. When asked if I don’t think that the Fed monetizing debt of all kinds won’t eventually be inflationary, I answer, „We better hope so!“

The Banking System Is Still Broken

Borrow from the Federal Reserve at zero and lend to Treasury for a profit. That’s some racket..

By ANN LEE, WSJ.  Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke have announced that the recession is over. Now that the Dow Jones Industrial Average has broken the 10,000 mark, we’ll surely be hearing assurances that economic growth is here to stay. But the credit markets are in much worse shape than some indicators suggest. First of all, not all U.S. banks are created equal. A few multinational banks such as Citigroup are officially too big to fail. Credit spreads in the markets reflect the relatively risk-free nature of these large companies, which now have implicit government guarantees. But this protection doesn’t apply to smaller banks, some of which are being shut down by the FDIC without much media attention.

Euro Strength to Hamper Eurozone Recovery?

On October 21, 2009 the euro briefly topped the $1.50 level against the dollar for the first time in 14 months. The euro settled at $1.49 late in New York as pressure on the dollar gained momentum. The strengthening euro means tougher competition for eurozone exports which could hamper Europe’s economic growth just as signs have emerged that a recovery has been gaining ground across the currency bloc. •“The value of the euro against a basket of currencies, weighted according to eurozone trading patterns, has increased 10% during the past year, enough to wipe by some estimates one percentage point off the region’s economic growth.“ (WSJ, 10/19/09)

Eastern Europe: Out of the Danger Zone?

Mittwoch, 21. Oktober 2009, 18:51:17 | Mary Stokes and Jelena Vukotic

Fears of a full-fledged regional financial crisis across Eastern Europe have eased, calmed by a strong IMF presence, hefty external assistance to those in need, and a general improvement in global risk appetite. Nevertheless, the region is not out of the woods. The specter of a Latvian devaluation still looms, banking stress continues, and rising political risk in several countries with IMF programs is a concern.

Why Wall Street Reform is Stuck in Reverse

Gestern, 22. Oktober 2009, 16:52:58 | wieder etwas vom Feinsten von Robert Reich’s Blog – jetzt weiss ich, warum Ungleichheit mehr Prosperität für unsere Gesellschaft schafft! Welche Idioten Goldman beschäftigt (und dann noch mit höchsten Bonuszahlungen versorgt!)

At a conference in London, a Goldman Sachs international adviser, Brian Griffiths, praised inequality. As his company was putting aside $16.7 billion for compensation and benefits in the first nine months of 2009, up 46 percent from a year earlier, Griffiths told us not to worry. “We have to tolerate the inequality as a way to achieve greater prosperity and opportunity for all,” he said.

Eight months ago it looked as if Wall Street was in store for strong financial regulation — oversight of derivative trading, pay linked to long-term performance, much higher capital requirements, an end to conflicts of interest (i.e. credit rating agencies being paid by the very companies whose securities they’re rating), and even resurrection of the Glass-Steagall Act separating commercial from investment banking.

Today, Congress is struggling to produce the tiniest shards of regulation that would at least give the appearance of doing something to rein in the Street.

Hellmuth Butterweck: die Rache des Geldes

Die Rache des Geldes” ist die notwendige Ergänzung zur ökologischen Wachstumskritik. Der Autor erzählt, wie das ökonomische Denken im Konflikt zweier großer Schulen erstarrte und entlarvt die Wachstumsprediger als Wiedergänger längst untergegangener Theorien. Er analysiert die Schwierigkeiten, die am Übergang zu einer wachstumsarmen Wirtschaft stehen und eröffnet mit konkreten Vorschlägen für ein alternatives wirtschaftspolitisches Instrumentarium den Diskurs über die Bekämpfung der Arbeitslosigkeit mit neuen Mitteln.

Ein durchaus reflexives Buch des profilierten Wiener Journalisten(*1927).

Abtrennung riskanter Segmente. Mervyn King will Banken aufspalten

Strengere Eigenkapitalvorschriften? Testamente für Institute? Alles schön und gut, findet der Chef der Bank of England. Aber die nächste Krise wird das aus Sicht von Mervyn King nicht verhindern. Er fordert radikalere Schritte.

Mervyn King gehen die bisherigen Reformpläne nicht weit genug

von Chris Giles, London. Aus der FT Deutschland: 

Der Gouverneur der Bank of England, Mervyn King , fordert die Aufspaltung von Banken.