Fragezeichen Finanzwirtschaft: Neue Werte oder alles wie bisher?

 Veranstaltung des Finanz-Marketing-Verbandes Österreich

Die Konjunktur erholt sich langsam, die Wachstums-chancen für die Wirtschaft sind wieder besser geworden und die Börsen legen wieder zu. Allerdings wird die Arbeitslosigkeit weiter steigen und der Abbau der inzwischen angehäuften Schulden wird viele Jahre dauern und zu hohen Belastungen führen. Trotzdem: die Trend-wende scheint geschafft! Doch wie sieht es mit der Finanzwirtschaft, dem Auslöser der größten Wirtschaftskrise seit Jahrzehnten, selbst aus?

Catching the Argentinian Disease

aus John Mauldin’s Newsletter:

I have been in South America this week, speaking nine times in five days, interspersed with lots of meetings. The conversation kept coming back to the prospects for the dollar, but I was just as interested in talking with money managers and business people who had experienced the hyperinflation of Argentina and Brazil. How could such a thing happen? As it turned out, I was reading a rather remarkable book that addressed that question. There are those who believe that the United States is headed for hyperinflation because of our large and growing government fiscal deficit and massive future liabilities (as much as $56 trillion) for Medicare and Social Security.

This week, we will look at the Argentinian experience and ask ourselves whether „it“ – hyperinflation – can happen here.

The Ascent of Money

Market Cheers Over Ugly GDP Report

The stock market and commodities are giddy today on the Third Quarter Advance GDP Estimate which increased at an annualized rate of 3.5%.

Real gross domestic product — the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States – increased at an annual rate of 3.5 percent in the third quarter of 2009, (that is, from the second quarter to the third quarter), according to the „advance“ estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP decreased 0.7 percent.

 Motor vehicle output added 1.66 percentage points to the third-quarter change in real GDP after adding 0.19 percentage point to the second-quarter change. Final sales of computers subtracted 0.11 percentage point from the third-quarter change in real GDP after subtracting 0.04 percentage point from the second-quarter change.

Real personal consumption expenditures increased 3.4 percent in the third quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 0.9 percent in the second. Durable goods increased 22.3 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 5.6 percent. The third-quarter increase largely reflected motor vehicle purchases under the Consumer Assistance to Recycle and Save Act of 2009 (popularly called, “Cash for Clunkers” Program).

Jamie Dimon: Lucky or Good?

Na, der Jamie Dimon schien ja immer als ein „Guter“ bei den Investment Banken, auch weil er nicht diese Spekulationen einging.

Books October 8, 2009, 5:00PM EST text size: TT

How the JPMorgan Chase CEO weathered the global financial maelstrom and emerged almost unscathed

By Mara Der Hovanesian

Last Man Standing:
The Ascent of Jamie Dimon and JPMorgan Chase
By Duff McDonald
Simon & Schuster; 340pp.; $28

Few figures of today’s financial world are more respected than Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase (JPM). For a banker to emerge from the financial meltdown with mere flesh wounds might be accomplishment enough. But for Dimon—whose rise, fall, and rise again has been one of the most compelling stories on Wall Street for decades—the crisis proved he is much more than a survivor. Dimon has earned the ear of the U.S. President, the gratitude of the Treasury Dept. for helping the U.S. escape financial ruin, and the respect of legendary investor Warren Buffett.

An IMF Just for Emerging Markets

Developing countries don’t trust the fund to serve their interests. Solution: An EMF

By Simon Johnson

Fresh from its annual meeting in Istanbul on Oct.6-7, the International Monetary Fund is taking a moment to celebrate itself. The IMF rediscovered its role as a lender of last resort in the global crisis (with Iceland a notable rescue). Earlier this year it got an extra $500 billion from member countries to triple its lending capacity. And it is positioned to manage the G-20′s much-hyped peer review of countries’ monetary, fiscal, and financial policies.

But below the surface, problems are intensifying: The IMF’s ability to stabilize the global economy may hit a wall because of resentment among emerging economies. Developing nations have long complained about the extent to which the U.S. and Western Europe dominate the 186-member group—and about

A Crisis in the Kremlin

John Mauldin:

Today I give you a video about Russia and how a plan to fix the economy might throw off the political balance of power. I regard Moscow’s situation as a valuable lesson for our country – also in the throes of an economic crisis – and for investors affected by global markets. Click here to watch this great video by my friends at STRATFOR, a global intelligence company

Romania Politics: IMF Agreement at Risk?

After months of uncomfortable alliance, Romania’s coalition government collapsed in October 2009, putting in question Romania’s ability to enact painful reforms required under its €20 billion (US$26.9 billion) IMF loan agreement. •President Basescu: „The [IMF] agreemeent for 2010 must be revised. It is clear that certain changes must be made, (…) because Romania will not be able to fulfill all its commitments by Dec. 31.“ (AP, 10/27/09) •

A Balanced Global Diet

Nouriel Roubini | Oct 28, 2009 From the International Herald Tribune:

Global imbalances — roughly defined, the different emphasis the world’s leading economies place on savings, spending and debt — is a phrase much used and little acted upon.

Well before the current financial crisis began, world leaders pledged to address this disconnect. At an International Monetary Fund meeting in 2007, for instance, representatives of the United States and the European Union agreed they should change economic incentives to encourage more savings and less spending; officials speaking for China, Japan and Germany, meanwhile, pledged to take steps to encourage spending. At the end of the day, nothing much happened, and these imbalances helped grease the skids for the global descent toward the economic abyss.

This might not be readily apparent from current numbers; in fact, the financial crisis has contributed to a significant narrowing of global economic imbalances. Consumers in so-called “deficit countries” — states like the U.S., Britain, Spain and the countries of Eastern Europe that have huge trade deficits — are saving more as the crisis has exposed the dangerous extent of their indebtedness. Meanwhile, in China and other large export-driven economies, fiscal stimulus spending and some other policy moves have encouraged more domestic consumption. 

IMF’s Terms for Ukrainian Tranche: ‘Veto Wage and Pension Bill’

Ukraine’s economy contracted by nearly 20% in Q1 2009 and 18% in Q2 2009 despite the IMF’s US$16.5 billion loan made in November 2008. The deteriorating political climate in the country had put the disbursement of this loan at risk but subsequent macro-economic policy compromises allowed the delivery of the second and third tranches •IMF has asked Ukraine to veto its wage and pension bill as a precondition to disbursing a US$ 3.4 billion loan tranche.

Norway’s Central Bank First to Raise Interest Rates in Europe

Bank Signals Steeper Rate Path

• On October 28, 2009, Norges Bank (Norway’s central bank) increased the key policy rate by 0.25% to 1.5%. Executive board’s strategy set the key policy rate interval to 1.25% – 2.25% until its meeting in March 2010. Given the Norwegian economy’s mild downturn and strong recovery prospects, monetary tightening was expected. Norges Bank cautioned that a stronger krone could slow its expected pace of rate increases.