„Weltwährungsreserven schrumpfen“

In den letzten Jahren haben sich mit dem boomenden Welthandel auch die Währungsreserven der Zentralbanken rasant entwickelt. Sie sind Kennzeichen der Ungleichgewichte, welche sich im Welthandel aufgebaut haben, denn sie entstehen aus den Leistungsbilanzüberschüssen von Staaten oder Wirtschaftsräumen. Während die Weltwährungsreserven von 2000 bis 2008 um das 3,46-fache von 1,936 Billionen Dollar auf 6,702 Bio. Dollar explodierten, stieg das Welt-BIP, Summe aller Waren, Güter und Dienstleistungen weltweit um das 1,9-fache von 31,493 Bio. Dollar auf 60,115 Bio. Dollar!

Mit der Wirtschafts- und Finanzkrise und dem sinkenden weltweiten Exportvolumen gehen auch die weltweiten Weltwährungsreserven zurück. Zum 1. Quartal 2009 sanken die Währungsreserven der Zentralbanken um -2,6% im Vergleich zum Vorquartal und um -5,2% zum Vorjahresquartal.

Aus: Querschüsse

India’s Industrial Production and PMI on Expansion Path Owing to Domestic Demand

• Industrial production increased by 2.7% y/y in May 2009, the fastest pace in eight month, after rising 1.2% y/y in April 2009. It was led by growth in mining (3.7% y/y), manufacturing (2.5% y/y) and electricity (3.3% y/y) sectors due to improving domestic demand. Consumer goods production grew 12.4% y/y in May 2009 owing to strong demand for consumer durable goods. (Ministry of Statistics, India)

Germany’s ‘Bad Bank’-Scheme: How Good Is It?

Nun ist es offiziell: der Schwindel kann bis 20 Jahre dauern!

• On July 10, the German upper house voted in favor of adopting the current ‘bad bank’ bill which is aimed at stabilizing the financial sector. The scheme allows for the creation of a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) to which banks can transfer their ‘toxic assets’ which are currently estimated at EUR 230 billion. The government hopes that this will result in increasing fresh lending activity which in turn is necessary in order to support the future economic recovery.

Chinese Exports Contracted by 21% in June: Could Exports Be Close to a Bottom?

• Chinese exports contracted by 21.4% y/y in June 2009 from 26.4% y/y in May 2009. June’s decline, the eight consecutive monthly decline matches the longest string of declines in 1995-96. Imports fell by 13% (less than expected and much lower than the over 20% so far in 2009) leaving a trade surplus of US$8.54 billion (from US$13.4 billion in May and the lowest in 2 years if one excludes the months disrupted by the Chinese new year). (Bloomberg)

• Chinese exports have been contracting on a year-over-year basis for eight months but may now be showing signs of stabilization, growing on a seasonally adjusted monthly basis in June 2009. Imports have begun to increase also on a monthly basis perhaps reflecting the increase in commodity prices since the beginning of 2009 but also the increase in production and possibly domestic demand. Yet the export weakness and weak trade surplus will be a drag on growth, likely keeping China’s growth below potential.