Österreichs Banken in Osteuropa NEU!

Update zur bisher sehr nachgefragten Aufstellung. Mit dem RZB CEE Banking Report eingearbeitet.

Österreichs Banken in Osteuropa

World Bank Sees 3% Global Contraction

aus THE WALL STREET JOURNAL, 11.06.2009

„The World Bank publicly released an update on Thursday 11, 2009, but looked at only 2009, saying it expected the global economy to contract by „close to 3%.“ That is sharply worse than the World Bank’s March estimate of a 1.7% contraction. Mr. Zoellick said that while there are signs of an easing of the recession in wealthy countries, developing nations are suffering from a drop in exports, remittances and foreign investment.

4 People and Firm Sued in Madoff Case

aus der heutigen NYT. Endlich geht es los!

Three lawsuits filed on Monday provided new details about what regulators say went on inside Bernard L. Madoff’s long-running Ponzi scheme, including information about who might have helped perpetuate the fraud for so long.

Hungary Monetary Policy: Central Bank Keeps Rates on Hold at 9.5% in June

• June 22: Hungary’s central bank (MNB) kept its benchmark interest rate on hold at 9.5%. The MNB has limited room to deliver rate cuts, despite a sharp recession and slowing inflation, due to a weak currency and distressed financial markets

• MNB: Prolonged weakness of domestic demand is likely to mitigate effects of a weaker exchange rate and above target inflation (above 3%)

A Significant Global Growth Contraction in 2009, But What Path for 2010?

• World Bank (June 22): Global GDP, after falling by a record 2.9% in 2009 is expected to recover by a modest 2% in 2010 and by 3.2% in 2011 as banking sector consolidation, continuing negative wealth effects, elevated unemployment rates, and risk aversion are expected to weigh on demand throughout the forecast period. Despite higher growth rates in developing countries (given stronger underlying productivity and population growth), output will remain subdued

• World Bank: Given output losses to date – and because GDP will reach its potential growth rate only by 2011- the output gap (the gap between actual GDP and its potential), unemployment, and disinflationary pressures are projected to build over 2009 to 2011

A Tale of Two Depressions

This week’s Outside the box looks at some very interesting research done by two economic historians, Barry Eichengreen of the University of California at Berkeley and Kevin O’Rourke of Trinity College, Dublin They give us comparisons between the Great Depression and today’s downturn.

The „Great Recession“ label may turn out to be too optimistic. This is a Depression-sized event.

Ganz wichtiger Vergleich, mit sensationellen Charts!

A Tale of Two Depressions 1929 vs 2008 Mauldin

Financial Crisis – the gloomy new report from the World Bank

June 22, 2009—An unprecedented global economic crisis demands unprecedented initiatives to restore growth. The World Bank Group is helping with the financial rescue but believes that we must remain focused on the human rescue for the many millions left behind. The Bank is calling for developed countries to pledge the equivalent of 0.7 percent of their stimulus packages, or as much as they can in additional money, to a global vulnerability fund to help developing countries, which can’t afford bailouts and deficits.

Financial Crisis Facts & Figures

The risks of a double-dip, W-shaped recession may be growing

Von Nouriel Roubini, aus der Taipeh Times, 21/6

In the past three months, global asset prices have rebounded sharply: Stock prices have increased by more than 30 percent in advanced economies and by much more in most emerging markets. Prices of commodities — oil, energy, and minerals — have soared; corporate credit spreads (the difference between the yield of corporate and government bonds) have narrowed dramatically, as government-bond yields have increased sharply; volatility (the “fear gauge”) has fallen; and the dollar has weakened as demand for safe dollar assets has abated.

Economist Paul Krugman on being surprised by the spread of the downturn

Interview aus der Juni Harvard Business Review

HBR06_09 Forethought Economist Paul Krugman on being surprised by the spread of the downturn

Too Big to Fail? How About Too Big to Exist?

In the financial system, this means limiting how big companies are allowed to become.

As governments struggle to fix the crisis, plenty of experts have weighed in on its causes, from excess leverage to lax oversight to faulty compensation structures. These explanations can account for how individual banks, hedge funds, and so on got themselves into trouble, but they gloss over the larger question of how all these institutions, acting independently, managed collectively to put trillions of dollars at risk without being detected.

Aus der Juni Harvard Business Review

HBR06_09 Forethought Too Big to Fail How About Too Big to Exist